Caucuses don’t exactly involve votes per se.  Instead caucus goers gather in a large room around their candidate.  Any candidate that doesn’t have at least 15% of the caucus goers is ruled not viable and their supporters physically move to the area of their second choice. That’s where it gets interesting and it’s what causes pundit predictions to sometimes be incredibly wrong.  Predicting who will have less than 15% isn’t too difficult but predicting where their supporters will go is not so easy.

On the Democrat side Dennis Kucinich has already told his supporters to support Obama should he not make the first cut, which is likely.  Indeed on both sides there will be a number of candidates who will not meet the 15% threshold and all their supporters will move to someone else.  That makes predictions difficult.

I don’t plan to make predictions on the Democrat side, primarily because I don’t really care.  I’m much more interested in the Republican caucus.

Mitt Romney has spent a boat load of money to buy the Iowa caucus and a couple of months ago the conventional wisdom was that he would walk away with it.  Today Romney finds himself in a dead heat with Mike Huckabee even though he’s outspent Huckabee by something like 20 to 1.  The pundits are pretty much universally saying everything depends on turnout.  Which candidates can get their voters out to the caucus will determine the outcome.  I agree with that to a point but I think there is more at play here.

The Iowa Straw Poll in August was an eye opener for many.  Romney was widely expected to win, as he did, but no one predicted Huckabee to come in second.  Since the Iowa Straw Poll is mostly about buying votes Romney clearly had the edge.  No one could compete with the money he could spend on the effort.  Huckabee, on the other hand, had virtually no money to spend, yet he came in a strong second.  There were a couple of reasons for that showing and keep in mind that Huckabee supporters pretty much had to pay their own way to the poll unlike Romney supporters.

First, Huckabee’s very outspoken support of the FairTax was probably the primary reason he showed so well.  FairTax supporters are well organized and they mostly support Huckabee because he supports the FairTax so strongly and articulately.  While there has been some acknowledgement of the roll of the FairTax by the pundits in the media, I believe they broadly underestimate how big that roll actually is.

Second, Huckabee unapologetically supports the issues so called “values voters” care about.  He is pro life, pro family, pro second amendment and against gay marriage.  He’s also an outspoken Christian and makes no bones about it.  That scares some people who think any Christian will usher in a theocracy but evangelicals by and large are behind him.

The latest polls all have Romney and Huckabee in a tie while no one else has even 15% in the polls.  So Romney and Huckabee will certainly make the first cut.  Who will be out after the first round? 

Giuliani and Paul will not make the first cut.  Predicting where their supporters will go is somewhat difficult.  Giuliani supporters will likely split between McCain (should he make the first cut) and Romney but Paul supporters are anyone’s guess.  As rabid as those folks are they could pack up and go home, not moving to any candidate.  If Thompson does not make the first cut his supporters will almost universally go to Huckabee.  Romney is viewed as a RINO and Thompson supporters are real conservatives.  They will not support the RINO.

McCain has more than 15% in only one poll but I think it likely he will make the first round.  If he does not his supporters likely will not go for Romney because Romney has now gone after McCain in some of his ads. That gives most of those supporters to Huckabee if it comes to that in the first round.

Back to the turnout question.  Remember how FairTax supporters buoyed Huckabee in the Iowa Straw Poll?  I predict the same thing will happen in the caucus.  I believe that in the first round Huckabee will have a significant lead over Romney.  That will have some impact on the second round as the supporters whose candidates don’t make the first cut decide where to move their support.

Thompson is really the wild card.  If he makes the first cut Huckabee could be hurt in the second round and it is then possible that Romney or even McCain could take the lead.  I consider than an unlikely but possible outcome.

I predict the first round goes to Huckabee by a fairly wide margin.  Romney will be second and McCain third in the first round.  All of Thompson’s supporters will go to Huckabee, Giuliani’s supporters will split between McCain and Romney and Paul’s supporters (those who stay) will go to McCain.

In the second round Huckabee’s support grows the most because he gets all of Thompson’s supporters.  Romney gains the least in the second round and McCain ends up in the middle.

The end result will be Huckabee first, McCain second and Romney third.  That will leave the Romney campaign shell shocked and scrambling to regroup for New Hampshire.  Romney will dramatically increase spending in New Hampshire and the number of negative attack ads he runs will increase dramatically as well.

These are, of course, only predictions.  They could be wrong and indeed, almost certainly will be wrong in some details.  I chose to be pretty specific about how this will go which increases the opportunities to be wrong.  But I think the analysis is pretty sound and it will be interesting on Thursday to see how it turns out and how close I come to the actually results.

Stay tuned for caucus results analysis.

We’ve been down this road before and all the evidence says the government isn’t serious about controlling the border or doing anything about illegals already here except to give them a pass. Of course, that just creates more incentive for more illegals to cross the boarder the government has shown no interest in securing. So why on earth should we trust them when they tell us that “under the bill” this and that will happen.

Chertoff, et. al. know this full well. Lindsey Graham knows this. All of them know this. We’ve said it ad nauseum! They simply choose to ignore what we say and go on calling us bigots and talking about what the bill will do. The fact is, current law calls for a fence that isn’t getting built. Current law calls for border enforcement. There is no need for another law to do these things. Yet Bush, Chertoff and the rest have no interest in enforcing current law. So WHY SHOULD WE TRUST THEM to enforce a new law? There is simply no reason to trust them.

A common definition for insanity is doing the same thing over and over, expecting a different result. The Bush administration and its lackeys in Congress apparently assume the electorate is insane. We should trust them to do the same thing they always done and expect them to actually enforce the law this time! I don’t think so.

I like the idea I heard on the Laura Ingraham show today. Lets just start calling them former, as in former Senator Lindsey Graham and former Homeland Security Secretary Chertoff. I’ve already started working to unseat Lindsey Graham and there is a groundswell against him in South Carolina.

So if you are tempted to buy this line the “under the bill” they will secure the border and there will be a fence and there are triggers, don’t you believe it. They have to earn our trust. If your friend lies to you, you might give them another chance. But if they lie to you repeatedly, it takes a long, sustained effort of earning trust before you will be willing to trust them again. The same is true of our government. Let’s all assume the state motto of Oklahoma: Show Me! The only way they can show me is to start enforcing the law now and sustain that effort for an extended period of time. Then and only then, come back and maybe we’ll talk. But until they do that, there is absolutely no reason to trust them.

 

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As for Republican backers on the Bush team like Lindsey Graham and John McCain, rather than attempt make well though out and reasoned arguments to the Republican base, they have called them bigots and xenophobes. That’s a sure way to sway the opposition in your own party.

So what is going on? Why are those who support comprehensive immigration reform doing almost the opposite of what they need to do to gain support?

Some are suggesting a grand conspiracy whereby the supporters of the package are actually trying to trick us. One person suggested that this was analogous to Bush nominating Harriet Meyers to the Supreme Court. His theory is that without the Meyers nomination, Alito could never have been confirmed. Others suggest that Democrats are simply trying to exhaust the American people so they can ultimately sneak this legislation through in the dark of night a few weeks from now.

Another suggestion, one that I think actually holds water, is that the Democrat leadership is more interested in denying Bush anything he could call a victory than they are in passing their most cherished legislation. In the eyes of Harry Reid, every initiative Bush is denied is another Senate seat come ’08. Of course, if that is grand scheme, Ted Kennedy should get an Oscar nomination for his performance on the Senate floor when Reid pulled the package.

Now, of course, President Bush is committed to seeing this legislation come back up and it likely will. Tony Snow has become the point man for promoting the issue and he has taken a far different approach from Lindsey Graham, et. al. Snow appears to be listening to the opposition and answering their objections rather than calling them names.

Listening to Snow on various talk shows and news programs one is almost tempted to buy into this “reform” package. According to Snow the reforms are real, the triggers will be enforced. What Snow fails to address, and I’ve heard no one actually ask, is that every single illegal alien in this country will receive immediate legal status under this bill. That, by any definition, is amnesty.

I’m a fan of Tony Snow. I’ve said before that it’s almost like having a friend in the White House. He is smart, articulate, reasoned and generally conservative. That’s why I can’t figure out what’s going on. I have a very difficult time believing Snow really thinks this is good legislation. True, he works for the President and is obligated to promote the President’s position. But if I was in Snow’s position I’d have no choice but to resign. I could not, in good conscience, argue in favor of this bill.

One thing I know. Unless Democrats are really committed to denying Bush any victory, this bill is going to keep coming back until it passes. That means it will require virtual permanent vigilance on the part of conservatives to keep it from passing.

Conservatives like me have stood by the President in spite of some pretty awful stuff. Take No Child Left Behind or his signing of Campaign Finance Reform or the Medicare Prescription Drug Benefit. In spite of these many things that were hardly conservative, we’ve stood by our President.

Now, when both Republicans and Democrats have a big problem with Comprehensive Immigration Reform, is the President willing to be loyal to those who have consistently supported him? Not on your life. He doesn’t even allow that our’s could be principled opposition. Instead, the President, McCain, Graham, et.al., characterize us as xenophobes and bigots.

I scratch my head every day wondering why the President and others in the Republican Party are so determined to jam this through no matter how much opposition there is. I can understand that the Republican Party does not want to be seen as anti-Hispanic. But in the end the President and his cadre are doing two things that are extremely harmful to the future prospects of the party.

First, they are jamming a wedge into the party. Some have characterized it as tearing the party apart and that may be an accurate description. There is a war within the Republican Party today and it is being waged primarily by President Bush and his accomplices. They are at war with the rank and file of the party and that does not bode well the Republican prospects in ’08.

Second, it is virtually indisputable that the vast majority of current illegals that ultimately become voting citizens will be Democrat voters. Clearly Ted Kennedy and the Democrat Party understand this. That’s why they’re willing to stand up to the unions on this issue. It takes something that big for the Democrat Party to stand up to unions.

The bottom line is, Republicans are screwed for a generation or more if this travesty of a piece of legislation makes it into law. Why then is the President doing it? Why is he willing to demagogue this issue? Why does he feel justified in calling those of us who oppose this xenophobes and bigots when he knows full well that isn’t true?

The only thing I can figure is the President is working on his legacy. He is as much a lame duck President as any ever was. His popularity is in the tank and it’s likely to go lower still with no rebound in sight unless there is a dramatic turnaround in Iraq. But if he can ram this down our throats he will be the President that dealt with the immigration problem. That’s what he’s counting on. The President wants his legacy and he’s willing to sell us out to get it! To hell with loyalty to the party or his supporters at the polls. His legacy takes precedence over loyalty. So tell me, why should anyone hold any loyalty to him?

I’ve never believed that Bush was a conservative. During his 2000 run I was not impressed and did not voter for him in the primary. But he got the nomination and I voted for him in the general election. Again in 2004 I voted for him just like millions of conservatives all across America who held their noses and checked off his name. We got some good for it. We got some good justices on the Supreme Court and we got tax cuts. But there is little else to show for our support.

I am finished being loyal to President Bush or any other Republican who puts his own interests ahead of his constituents. Lindsey Graham certainly falls into that category. Let this be a warning to Republican officials and candidates. We conservatives are not willing to be your lapdogs any longer. If you think I’m some lone malcontent, think again. There are many more just like me who will not continue to vote for you if you are unwilling to take a stand for conservative principles. We want to see a victory in ’08. We don’t want to see Hilary in the White House. But we will not be lemmings. If you expect loyalty from us you’d better be prepared to be loyal to us!

Listening to Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter tell about his father and brother immigrating here was just wonderful. What an inspiring story. But what on Earth does it have to do with the situation at hand? Specter’s father and brother immigrated here legally. They came here, submitted to processing, filled out the paperwork and followed our immigration laws. They learned English and worked to assimilate into American society.

South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham did precisely the same thing last week. The video is below in this blog. He talked about a Hispanic guy in the Air Force that was an inspiration to him. Great! No problem! Does anyone believe that Hispanic man in the Air Force was an illegal alien? Did he sneak across our border and join the Air Force? Of course not. If he was an immigrant at all he was a legal immigrant.

This in contrast to the ever growing flood of illegal aliens crossing our borders. They are not interested in becoming Americans. They have no desire to learn English or assimilate into American society. Mostly they want to take advantage of the services offered here and send money back to their home countries. Did you know that one of the biggest aspects of the Mexican economy is money sent home from America? That’s certainly one reason the Mexican government has been so opposed to any effort on our part to do something about the border.

The Congress can’t seem to understand why the American public doesn’t trust them on this. Could it be that we have been here before? We were told we’d have border security with the immigration reform in the ’80s. Did we get it? Does 12-20 million illegal aliens in this country look like we got it?

Now, rather than engage in an honest debate, they prefer to lie about those of us who oppose this measure. They say we are bigots and xenophobes. They do not acknowledge that there is a difference between illegal and legal immigration. In short, they lie to support their position and, apparently, they believe that if they lie long enough we will buy the lie. Small wonder we don’t trust Congress!

If you guys in the Congress want to gain some credibility, stop trying to shove this sham of a bill down our throats and instead, ENFORCE OUR CURRENT LAWS!! If you do that consistently for a period of time, you might just build up a little credibility. But so long as you insist on playing politics with the American people, so long as they continue to lie and mischaracterize those of us who oppose their position, they have no credibility.

Don’t hold your breath waiting for them to change though. Graham, Specter, McCain and all the rest of the Republicans pushing so hard on this issue are not concerned with what we, the people they represent, think. They somehow think that doing this will enhance their future electability. As for Graham, I think he’s angling for the VP spot with McCain. The problem for Graham is, McCain doesn’t stand a chance of getting the nomination and Graham doesn’t stand a chance of keeping his Senate seat in ’08. His political career as a Republican is all but over. He is already a lame duck and he is blind to the fact.

I can think of no better reason for resurrecting the issue of term limits. Career politicians are the biggest problem in this country. They are far less concerned with what is actually best for this country than they are about the next election. So long as power is the motivating factor, do not expect most of our elected officials to actually honor their promises and act in an ethical, principled manner.

I was on the phone with my father in Georgia last night. He’s been a big supporter of Georgia Senator Saxby Chambliss. But Chambliss is one of those Republicans working so hard to sell out this country. My dad can’t believe it! I don’t know what all the backroom deals have been. I know President Bush is looking for a legacy in a lame duck presidency and who can imagine what he has promised to Republicans who toe the line on this.

Here’s what I do know. If Republicans allow this legislation to become law, the Republican party is finished for the foreseeable future. All of Harry Reid’s predictions of massive Democrat Gains in the Senate will come to pass. Nancy Pelosi will be Speaker of the House for the next ten years at least. Maybe a solid conservative like Fred Thompson will be able to pull out the White House, I don’t know. But I’d lay odds that we will again be saying President Clinton and that is a future I don’t relish.

Finally, if this legislation becomes law, the Democrat party will be the ultimate winner. The vast majority of the illegal aliens in this country are already indebted to Democrats for the services they currently receive. The Democrats will continue with their vote buying legislative agenda. It could be a generation or more before the Republican party can recover, if them. Why congressional Republicans can’t see that simple fact is quite beyond me.

President Bush, along with RINOs Lindsey Graham and John McCain and Democrat Ted Kennedy, have reached a “compromise” for comprehensive immigration reform. That phrase, “comprehensive immigration reform” is code for amnesty. President Bush announced that the plan does not grant amnesty but any bill that allows aliens currently in this country illegally to pay a fine and get on a “path to citizenship” or permanent residency is an amnesty bill.

Virtually no one likes this bill. Backers are reluctant to discuss specifics beyond saying illegals will have to pay a fine and return home for a period of time. It is unlikely that the return home will be enforced or, if enforced, that illegals will have to stay for any significant period of time. How do you track more the more than 12 million people? Maybe set up another inefficient federal agency? And a $5,000 fine is a price many around the world would gladly pay for legal entrance into the united states. Yet those who have not entered this country illegally don’t get any special treatment and path toward citizenship.

Additionally, the Z visa only requires the head of household to return to the home country. His family can stay and there is no real idea of just how long he might have to stay in his home country but one official said it could be as short as one day. Convince me that won’t encourage more illegal immigration! Only a fool could believe that tail.

While this compromise seems historic, it appears there is still an uphill battle. Both conservatives and liberals have problems with it. Conservatives, of course, oppose the amnesty aspect of the proposal. Liberals oppose the change in immigration standards away from uniting families and toward more emphasis on skills.

Still, there is great interest on both sides of the aisle for passing some kind of comprehensive immigration reform this year. With that attitude, it is all but certain that, without outside effort, this will become a reality in some form before it’s all over. Conservatives must stay in touch with their Senators and Congressmen and keep the pressure on. This must be stopped. Amnesty did not work 20 some odd years ago and it won’t work today.

For my money, the way to deal with illegals currently in this country is to make it so painful for companies to employee them that simply won’t take the risk. When illegals find they cannot find work and support their families, much less send money back home, they will go home voluntarily. If there is not reason to be here, why would the stay? The incentives to come here illegally must be removed. That, along with real border enforcement will solve our problem. Then and only then we can look at a guest worker program and at that point, those who can speak English will have an advantage, regardless of whether they were previously here illegally

Meanwhile, Fred Thompson said that the bill and the attempt to create any comprehensive immigration reform should be scrapped until the border is secured. YEAH! That’s a position I can really get behind.

The biggest thing that struck me tonight was that no one made a big mistake and everyone did a pretty good job of speaking and answering. Of course, with Christ Matthews asking most of the questions, that wasn’t too difficult. Matthews asked some of the stupidest question imaginable. For example, Matthews wanted to know what several candidates thought about Carl Rove. He asked who would pardon Scooter Libby and, amazingly, Matthews asked if having Bill Clinton back in the White House was a good idea. With questions like that, how could the candidates go wrong?

All in all the questions were pretty softball. There were no difficult foreign policy questions to handle. The most difficult question of the night came from a Politico.com reader who asked Giuliani the difference between a Sunni and Shiite. Amazingly, Rudy knew the answer.

Mitt Romney probably came out on top tonight. He had good answers for every question, answers that conservatives could be happy with. He was pro like, supports alternatives to fetal stem cell research and opposed government funding of that research, pro tax cuts and was the only candidate to attack McCain Feingold Campaign Finance Reform. Romney came out very well.

McCain did a very good job as well. If I didn’t know him and already have my problems with him I might have come out of tonight a McCain supporter. He was the strongest in support of the war against Islamic Fascism and seemed to really understand the threat. McCain also exhibits a real understanding of why Republicans lost last November, something sorely lacking in the Republican Party. Still, McCain came out in support of federal funding of fetal stem cell research and he was the author of the worst attack in the first amendment in my lifetime.

Giuliani also came off pretty good overall but he still sounds wishy washy on abortion. He wants to appeal to both sides and he will not be able to pull that off.

Predictably, Ron Paul was his usual libertarian self. While I agree with him on a lot of issues, he clearly does not understand that threat we face from Islamic Fascism. He still believes we should not have gone to war with Iraq, he believes we should get out immediately and he thinks the US should have a non-interventionist policy.

Tommy Thompson said that Iraqis should vote on whether the US should be there and then we should respect their vote. I wholeheartedly disagree with that assessment. We must stay and win or the world will become a much more dangerous place.

All the candidate expressed pro life positions. With the exception of Giuliani, their support was pretty strong.

Brownback was the only candidate to take the position that faith should be allowed back into the public square. Indeed, he thinks it should be celebrated and invited back in. That is a position I strongly support.

Huckabee took the McCain position that we never had enough troops in Iraq to begin with. While I disagreed with McCain originally, in retrospect I now agree and think that Bush has badly mishandled the war. So I agree with both McCain and Huckabee on this issue.

Gilmore expressed the belief that prior to 9/11 the US didn’t pay enough attention the Middle East as a whole and this is a long term problem. That comports well with McCain’s position and I agree. Gilmore also believes that the US must represent the world in some respect.

As expected, Tancredo spent a lot of time on border security, or the lack thereof. He was also the only candidate to endorse the FairTax, a position I firmly agree with. Along with all the other candidates he supported tax cuts but said that unless we deal with mandatory spending issues, we still have a huge problem.

Along with Tancredo, Duncan Hunter also said border security is a large issue that must be dealt with. He said we must have an enforceable border. Hunter also supported building the Iraqi army rapidly so they can begin to take over from US troops, thereby letting us take on support rolls.

No candidate was asked and none ventured opinions on the problem of the Iraqi government and the problems it presents in terms of not cooperating with US objectives. In my opinion that was a big oversight on the part of Chris Matthews as the moderator.

As I said, this was a pretty tame debate. I expect more of the same next week in Columbia, SC. It is just too early in the campaign to see the candidates attack each other. I hope the moderator will at least ask some tough questions next week about foreign policy and about economics. If thew public is to begin deciding, they need real answers, not platitudes. It requires real questions to get real answers.

In closing I just want to say, it’s too bad Fred Thompson wasn’t there.

There are few things in my life that I regret more.

Lindsey Graham has been characterized by some as courageous because of his willingness to go against his party. I don’t think he’s courageous. I think Graham has his eyes on the White House and everything he does is entirely self serving. He’s been a Senator less than one term and he has more face time than almost anyone in the Senate. That is no coincidence.

Once again Graham has put his political aspirations ahead of party and country. He’s again partnered with RINO John McCain to thwart the president’s plan to clarify article III of the Geneva Convention so that our troops and the CIA can know what is acceptable and what is not when it comes to interrogating enemy prisoners. Graham’s actions follow his participation in the gang of 14 when he helped thwart Bush’s conservative nominations to the federal bench.

When Graham first ran for the Senate in 2002 he ran as a conservative. He has proven himself to be anything but a conservative. I’m not sure Graham has any core convictions. He stands for what he thinks will get his face before the public and get him the most publicity. He knows that anyone running for President needs name recognition and few politicians in Washington have greater name recognition that does Graham. Strange that that should be as such a junior member of the Senate.

There is one thing you can be certain of. When the 2008 campaign rolls around I will work tirelessly to defeat Graham. I will volunteer my time for the most conservative candidate in the primaries and I’ll go door to door telling everyone who will listen why Graham isn’t worthy of their vote. Should he win the nomination anyway, or should he be unopposed, I will work for whom ever his opponent is, even a Democrat. I’d rather have a Democrat representing this state than a snake in the grass RINO out to serve no one but himself.

Lindsey Graham has got to go and I will do everything in my power to ensure he is a one term Senator. He is an embarrassment to the State of South Carolina and to this country.

UPDATE:

Powerline Blog notes that Graham was interviewd by Hugh Hewitt where he promised to vote to allow judicial nominee William Haynes, General Counsel of the Department of Defense, to be released to the Senate floor for a full vote up or down.  Graham said, however, that he would vote against Haynes on the Senate floor.  Says Powerline:

So, if Graham can be trusted, I think that means that after a delay of several years, Haynes’s nomination will finally receive a Senate vote. That’s a victory of sorts, I guess.

Sounds to me like the folks at Powerline don’t trust Graham any more than I do!

Watch for a new section on this blog in the near furture dedicated to informing you about just what Lindsey Graham is doing why he should be defeated.

Tags: Conservative, Lindsey Graham, Politician, Politics, Republicans, RINO, Snake, Traitor