Regular readers will recall that I was an early Thompson supporter. To this day I believe Thompson is a more conservative candidate than Huckabee is, excepting his position on the FairTax. But Fred took so long to enter the race and when he did, he was all but invisible by choice. He gave few interviews and was not to be found in the media. At the same time Mike Huckabee was making his name known and moving up.

I believe that Fred’s showing last Thursday was too little too late. He threw everything he has at Huckabee because they are going after that same voters. It wasn’t enough. Huckabee has the lead and I don’t expect he’ll lose it. In fact, I expect that after the South Carolina primary we may see Fred Thompson drop out of the race. If he doesn’t come in at least second his viability will be in serious jeopardy. If Thompson drops out, who does he endorse and where do his supporters go?

The safe money is on Thompson backing his long time friend McCain. But I suspect many of Thompson’s supporters will have a difficult time moving over with him.

There are plenty of people calling John McCain a conservative. I remember a little online political test I took that said the candidate I agreed the most with was John McCain. That might be true on rhetoric alone but it certainly isn’t true when it comes to his record. John McCain is not a conservative, he is the maverick he’s portrayed himself to be. He’s unreliable when it comes to advancing the conservative agenda. How can Thompson supporters support McCain after Thompson drops out?

If they do not support McCain, where will they go? I can’t see them going with Giuliani who is a social liberal and opponent of the second amendment. What about Romney? Perhaps. But he’s a long time RINO recently converted to conservatism when it suited his ambition. I don’t trust him and I don’t see when conservatives in general should. What does that leave? It leaves Huckabee.

The problem is, Thompson supporters have joined the Huckabee bashing bandwagon. It will be difficult for them to support a guy they’ve invested so much into destroying.

All of you who hate Huckabee need to think about what you will do if he ends up being the nominee. Just like I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about what I’ll do if any of the current slate of RINOs ends up with the nomination. This thing is pretty wide open right now. I think as a party we need to give some serious though to how we’re going to win in November, not just how our candidate can win the nomination.

Conventional wisdom is nothing more or less than what most people think. Or at least most people within a specific group. It is certainly possible that conventional wisdom on a particular subject is the best course but I think it is unlikely. Conventional wisdom says you should limit your risk, taking only those risks that don’t cost much if you are wrong. That may lead you to a safe retirement but it won’t lead you to be a millionaire.

The conventional wisdom in Republican circles seems to be that Rudy Giuliani is the only candidate who can beat Hillary Clinton. Why is that? What makes Giuliani the one guy who can beat Hillary? It appears to be that he is so tough when it comes to foreign policy and terrorism. His strategy has been to create just the thinking that leads to the common conventional wisdom. He has worked to scare the Republican base into believing he can defeat both the terrorists and Hillary Clinton and no one else can. His strategy has certainly worked thus far but is the resulting conventional wisdom accurate?

I submit that it is not and I have several reasons for thinking so.

First, I think it doubtful that Giuliani can defeat Clinton in the first place. Everyone places their hopes on the polls but there are several problems with that, not the least of which is that the actual election isn’t for another year and polls are worthless that far out. Additionally, the polls only look at what the pollsters are interested in looking at. So, for example, there has been no poll pitting Hillary Clinton against, say, Mike Huckabee as was pointed out in a previous Republican debate.

Another reason for doubting that Giuliani can defeat Clinton is my belief that very many social conservative and evangelical Christians simply will not vote for him. Pat Robertson may have endorsed him but that isn’t going to go very far. I think James Dobson is more on the right track in terms of what evangelical Christians and social conservatives are likely to do. They will take one of two courses. They will vote for a third party candidate or they will stay home. Either course leads to a Clinton victory in ’08. We saw similar results in both of Bill Clinton’s elections where he never had a majority of the vote. Indeed, Bill Clinton never would have won without the presence of Ross Perot in the elections.

The simple fact is, Rudy Giuliani is not a conservative. Socially he is a liberal and he does not hide that fact. He has made certain concessions like saying he will nominate justices in the mold of Scalia or Roberts but there is no certainty that he won’t change his mind considering how he feels about abortion, gay marriage and other social issues. In essence he would have to betray his own beliefs to follow through on his promise and I have little faith that he will do that.

A second reason for disbelieving that Giuliani is the only candidate who can beat Clinton is that when candidates with solid conservative records run on conservative platforms, they win. Giuliani does not fit that description. He is closer to Democrats than Republicans on a host of issues. In the end, why vote for a Republican who acts like a Democrat when you can get the genuine article?

I’ve said over and over that the reason Republicans lost in ’06 was that they had abandoned conservative principles. As the minority they had long held to conservatism but as the majority they governed much like Democrats. They hardly passed on a chance to expand government. So, rather than Reagan’s goal of eliminating the federal Department of Education we got No Child Left Behind, a massive expansion of the Department of Education. Never mind the fact that there is no Constitutional authority for that department. Republicans spent like their lives depended on it. And it all cost them the majority.

Now we have a Democrat Congress that has the lowest approval rating of any Congress since ranting have been taken. As bad as the Republicans were, the Democrats are worse. That presents an enormous opportunity if only we can take advantage of it.

The conventional wisdom also says that the Democrats will expand their majorities on Congress in ’08 but I don’t see that as inevitable. If Republicans would only coalesce around a solid conservative platform and nominate a solid conservative candidate for President, they could take back control of Congress and keep the White House. That isn’t going to happen by nominating Rudy Giuliani.

It is time to throw out conventional wisdom. It is time to step out and embrace conservatism. That is the winning strategy.