Giuliani had a solid lead in Florida before the early primaries.  Some polls had him over 36%.  Then the early primaries happened and Giuliani was not playing in any of them.  That changed the political landscape.  Now Giuliani, who has spent heavily in Florida, is tied for third with Huckabee who hasn’t spent much and isn’t campaigning there.  Pretty much everyone believes that if Giuliani doesn’t win Florida his campaign is over.  I think it likely he’ll come in forth. 

The polls show Romney and McCain in a statistical tie for first in Florida.  I suspect Romney will handily defeat McCain in the sunshine state, giving McCain a likely second place finish.  Of course, the large liberal northeastern snow birds could tilt that the other way. Second is as good as last in this winner take all state and if that is where McCain ends up it hurts him a lot.  Huckabee will be third which will give him no delegates but it will still energize his campaign because he will again have done it without much money, meaning he has real, solid support.

What does all that mean going into Super Tuesday?  I think it will be a three man race at that point with Romney leading the pack.  McCain and Huckabee will be fighting for second place.

There are, of course, some wildcards in play.  Where will Thompson supporters go?  They should go to Huckabee since both Huckabee and Thompson were going for the same constituency.  Some will go to Romney because he is the most conservative of the front runners (if you don’t consider Huckabee a front runner).  Some, like ALa of Blonde Sagacity, seem determined to go with McCain, primarily I think, because of his war record.  I’m mystified by that since these people consider themselves conservatives but they can ignore McCain-Feingold, McCain-Kennedy, etc.  But many of them bought pretty much anything Thompson said and Thompson attacked Huckabee relentlessly.  That was no surprise considering Huckabee was his main opponent.  They were, after all, reaching out to the same constituency.  Once again, violation of Reagan’s eleventh commandment takes its toll.

Then there’s the small group who supported Duncan Hunter.  Hunter is now endorsing Huckabee, which has to really irk some of the pundits on the right as well as Thompson supporters.

I still think Huckabee has a decent shot but I concede he has an uphill battle and the odds are against him.  If, as I am predicting, Giuliani comes in third or forth in Florida, he is toast.  His support has already shrunk considerably and without a win in Florida it will pretty much dry up.  That leaves a three man race with Romney, McCain and Huckabee going into Super Tuesday.

I am convinced that McCain cannot win overall in states that have closed primaries.  In the South Carolina primary McCain did not do well among those who consider themselves conservative or very conservative.  He also did not do well among those who are pro-life.  Additionally, Protestants and those who attend church regularly went largely for Huckabee (Source).  I said last week, McCain barely won South Carolina and it took independents crossing over to give him that win and had Thompson not been in the race Huckabee would likely have won anyway.  None of this bodes well for McCain going forward.  The best thing he has is the claim of momentum coming out of South Carolina and I’m not convinced he really has any momentum, though the media has worked hard to generate some.

Based on what is known now, I believe Romney is the most likely winner on Super Tuesday.  How well Huckabee does will depend on his ability to stretch a dollar and enlist the active support of the organizations that already exist in the FairTax community and the evangelical community.  That carried him in the Iowa Straw Poll, it carried him in the Iowa Caucus and it has the potential to carry him on Super Tuesday.  The question is, will those organizations mobilize?  If they do Huckabee could defy the odds and the pundits and be positioned to take the nomination.  If they do not, Romney wins on Super Tuesday.  Either way the best McCain can hope for is second and that would mean the end of his candidacy.  Indeed, if Romney is the clear winner after Super Tuesday he will likely be the nominee.  As much as that thought does not appeal to me, it is infinitely preferable to a McCain win.  Still, I have hope, if not giddy optimism, that Huckabee can pull this off.

If, by some miracle, McCain emerges from Super Tuesday a winner, the Republican Party is in real trouble!  More on that possible outcome in another post.

Here’s how I see it.  McCain was counting on winning in Michigan, or at least running a close second.  As it stands now it looks like he’ll be a distant second.  That hurts him in South Carolina.  The McCain campaign spin is that the large contingent of veterans in South Carolina is well organized and they will carry the day.  I don’t think so.  I think McCain comes in second or third on Saturday.  Those veterans may have done it for him had he won in Michigan but that didn’t happen.

Thompson has really been working hard here the last week and it is clearly paying off.  But he came in behind Ron Paul in Michigan which could hurt him as some see him as a lost cause.  That can only help Huckabee who hasn’t been sitting on his laurels either.  I think Huckabee wins in South Carolina.  Thompson comes in second or third.  If McCain can hold on to some of the numbers he’s built and comes in second with Thompson third that could spell the end of Thompson’s run.  Even Newt Gingrich thinks Huckabee is the man to beat here and he doesn’t see it happening either.

I’ve said before that from an ideological perspective I like Thompson over Huckabee.  I wish Thompson had executive experience though.  For the most part the voters prefer former Governors over former or current Senators.  Unquestionably Huckabee has the executive experience and Thompson doesn’t.  But otherwise I really like Thompson’s positions pretty much across the board.  The problem is, I don’t think he can win.  His abysmal showing in Michigan strengthens that view.  Huckabee, on the other hand, has shown his ability to build support and gain momentum in spite of a lack of funding.  Now he’s raising money at a much faster rate with the added momentum.  Thompson seems to be on fire now but I still think it’s just too late.

The latest Rasmussen poll has McCain with a strong lead in South Carolina, nine points over Huckabee but Real Clear Politics still has gives Huckabee +3.7.  While I generally like the Rasmussen poll I have strong doubts about this one.  I live here and talk to people.  I think I know a little about what’s going on here.  McCain may have a small lead going into today but if it’s actually a lead it will shrink following his distant second place finish in Michigan.  Besides, people in the south aren’t fans of McCain.  I think the Rasmussen poll is way off and I think Saturday will demonstrate that.

Regular readers will recall that I was an early Thompson supporter. To this day I believe Thompson is a more conservative candidate than Huckabee is, excepting his position on the FairTax. But Fred took so long to enter the race and when he did, he was all but invisible by choice. He gave few interviews and was not to be found in the media. At the same time Mike Huckabee was making his name known and moving up.

I believe that Fred’s showing last Thursday was too little too late. He threw everything he has at Huckabee because they are going after that same voters. It wasn’t enough. Huckabee has the lead and I don’t expect he’ll lose it. In fact, I expect that after the South Carolina primary we may see Fred Thompson drop out of the race. If he doesn’t come in at least second his viability will be in serious jeopardy. If Thompson drops out, who does he endorse and where do his supporters go?

The safe money is on Thompson backing his long time friend McCain. But I suspect many of Thompson’s supporters will have a difficult time moving over with him.

There are plenty of people calling John McCain a conservative. I remember a little online political test I took that said the candidate I agreed the most with was John McCain. That might be true on rhetoric alone but it certainly isn’t true when it comes to his record. John McCain is not a conservative, he is the maverick he’s portrayed himself to be. He’s unreliable when it comes to advancing the conservative agenda. How can Thompson supporters support McCain after Thompson drops out?

If they do not support McCain, where will they go? I can’t see them going with Giuliani who is a social liberal and opponent of the second amendment. What about Romney? Perhaps. But he’s a long time RINO recently converted to conservatism when it suited his ambition. I don’t trust him and I don’t see when conservatives in general should. What does that leave? It leaves Huckabee.

The problem is, Thompson supporters have joined the Huckabee bashing bandwagon. It will be difficult for them to support a guy they’ve invested so much into destroying.

All of you who hate Huckabee need to think about what you will do if he ends up being the nominee. Just like I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about what I’ll do if any of the current slate of RINOs ends up with the nomination. This thing is pretty wide open right now. I think as a party we need to give some serious though to how we’re going to win in November, not just how our candidate can win the nomination.

This isn’t really an analysis post, rather, it’s some of my impressions for tonight.

The biggest problem with John McCain is his inherent inability to admit that he has even been wrong.  He’s implied he was wrong on immigration reform by switching his position to border enforcement, yet he steadfastly refuses to admit that what he supported previously was amnesty.  Chris Wallace hammered this point home and McCain still claimed he’d never supported amnesty and never would.  Now McCain says he just wants to move on.  Well Senator, admit the facts and moving on will be far easier.

Huckabee was again asked about his support of in-state tuition for the children of illegals and whether his recently announced plan for immigration didn’t “punish the children for the sins of the parents” just like denying in-state tuition would.  Huckabee vehemently denied that it would.  This is an issue on which I disagree with Huckabee and his response to the question seemed particularly strained.  He did, however, point out that Reagan signed the amnesty bill in the 80s.

The fact is, everyone one of the candidates in the forum except Fred Thompson, have significant weaknesses on the issue illegal immigration.  Giuliani ran a sanctuary city, McCain supported the amnesty bill, Huckabee supports in-state tuition and Romney had illegals working at his house.

Thompson’s point was clearly the best.  Our policy must not encourage more illegal immigration.

Overall I think all the candidates came out okay tonight.  No one committed a big gaff and no one hit a home run.  The focus group on FOX said Romney clearly won.  I completely disagree with them and so did all the pundits.  It was a great informational forum and I think the real winner was the voters who watched.  If anyone lost tonight it was probably John McCain.  He didn’t look good on immigration or taxes.  On taxes he still maintains his vote against the Bush tax cuts was right because he wanted to reign in spending.  I’m with him on spending but that’s like a drowning man refusing to raise his nose out of the water because he can’t also raise his mouth.  Okay, drown then!

As for my candidate, Huckabee, he did fine overall.  He clearly defended himself once again against Romney’s “half truths” as Huckabee put it.  He isn’t likely to win New Hampshire but he will do good enough there and perhaps better than expected.  He’s in this race for the foreseeable future and he will be a force to be reckoned with.

Tomorrow I’ll make my predictions for the New Hampshire primary.

I nailed Huckabee.  He won with a significant margin.  I was off on Romney and McCain.  McCain didn’t get the bounce I expected because Thompson did better than I expected.  While I would have liked to see Romney come in third, I’m not at all unhappy with the outcome.  I’m glad Thompson ended up in a tie with McCain and I’m really glad Huckabee did so well.

I don’t know that Thompson will be able to hold on past New Hampshire.  He did better than I expected today but I don’t think he did well enough.  At this point I still think Huckabee is the best bet for conservatives, despite all the claims by Rush and others that he’s not a conservative.  No, he’s not Reagan, Rush is right about that.  No one in this race is Reagan.  But I’m excited about Huckabee.

Just a note about the Democrat caucus.  That Hillary came in third is HUGE!  I’m no fan of Edwards (he’s totally vapid) but I was rooting him on tonight.  Hillary’s campaign is in no way derailed but this is a real hit and she’ll have to rethink he campaign strategy now.  It will be interesting to see what she does next.

More tomorrow.

Caucuses don’t exactly involve votes per se.  Instead caucus goers gather in a large room around their candidate.  Any candidate that doesn’t have at least 15% of the caucus goers is ruled not viable and their supporters physically move to the area of their second choice. That’s where it gets interesting and it’s what causes pundit predictions to sometimes be incredibly wrong.  Predicting who will have less than 15% isn’t too difficult but predicting where their supporters will go is not so easy.

On the Democrat side Dennis Kucinich has already told his supporters to support Obama should he not make the first cut, which is likely.  Indeed on both sides there will be a number of candidates who will not meet the 15% threshold and all their supporters will move to someone else.  That makes predictions difficult.

I don’t plan to make predictions on the Democrat side, primarily because I don’t really care.  I’m much more interested in the Republican caucus.

Mitt Romney has spent a boat load of money to buy the Iowa caucus and a couple of months ago the conventional wisdom was that he would walk away with it.  Today Romney finds himself in a dead heat with Mike Huckabee even though he’s outspent Huckabee by something like 20 to 1.  The pundits are pretty much universally saying everything depends on turnout.  Which candidates can get their voters out to the caucus will determine the outcome.  I agree with that to a point but I think there is more at play here.

The Iowa Straw Poll in August was an eye opener for many.  Romney was widely expected to win, as he did, but no one predicted Huckabee to come in second.  Since the Iowa Straw Poll is mostly about buying votes Romney clearly had the edge.  No one could compete with the money he could spend on the effort.  Huckabee, on the other hand, had virtually no money to spend, yet he came in a strong second.  There were a couple of reasons for that showing and keep in mind that Huckabee supporters pretty much had to pay their own way to the poll unlike Romney supporters.

First, Huckabee’s very outspoken support of the FairTax was probably the primary reason he showed so well.  FairTax supporters are well organized and they mostly support Huckabee because he supports the FairTax so strongly and articulately.  While there has been some acknowledgement of the roll of the FairTax by the pundits in the media, I believe they broadly underestimate how big that roll actually is.

Second, Huckabee unapologetically supports the issues so called “values voters” care about.  He is pro life, pro family, pro second amendment and against gay marriage.  He’s also an outspoken Christian and makes no bones about it.  That scares some people who think any Christian will usher in a theocracy but evangelicals by and large are behind him.

The latest polls all have Romney and Huckabee in a tie while no one else has even 15% in the polls.  So Romney and Huckabee will certainly make the first cut.  Who will be out after the first round? 

Giuliani and Paul will not make the first cut.  Predicting where their supporters will go is somewhat difficult.  Giuliani supporters will likely split between McCain (should he make the first cut) and Romney but Paul supporters are anyone’s guess.  As rabid as those folks are they could pack up and go home, not moving to any candidate.  If Thompson does not make the first cut his supporters will almost universally go to Huckabee.  Romney is viewed as a RINO and Thompson supporters are real conservatives.  They will not support the RINO.

McCain has more than 15% in only one poll but I think it likely he will make the first round.  If he does not his supporters likely will not go for Romney because Romney has now gone after McCain in some of his ads. That gives most of those supporters to Huckabee if it comes to that in the first round.

Back to the turnout question.  Remember how FairTax supporters buoyed Huckabee in the Iowa Straw Poll?  I predict the same thing will happen in the caucus.  I believe that in the first round Huckabee will have a significant lead over Romney.  That will have some impact on the second round as the supporters whose candidates don’t make the first cut decide where to move their support.

Thompson is really the wild card.  If he makes the first cut Huckabee could be hurt in the second round and it is then possible that Romney or even McCain could take the lead.  I consider than an unlikely but possible outcome.

I predict the first round goes to Huckabee by a fairly wide margin.  Romney will be second and McCain third in the first round.  All of Thompson’s supporters will go to Huckabee, Giuliani’s supporters will split between McCain and Romney and Paul’s supporters (those who stay) will go to McCain.

In the second round Huckabee’s support grows the most because he gets all of Thompson’s supporters.  Romney gains the least in the second round and McCain ends up in the middle.

The end result will be Huckabee first, McCain second and Romney third.  That will leave the Romney campaign shell shocked and scrambling to regroup for New Hampshire.  Romney will dramatically increase spending in New Hampshire and the number of negative attack ads he runs will increase dramatically as well.

These are, of course, only predictions.  They could be wrong and indeed, almost certainly will be wrong in some details.  I chose to be pretty specific about how this will go which increases the opportunities to be wrong.  But I think the analysis is pretty sound and it will be interesting on Thursday to see how it turns out and how close I come to the actually results.

Stay tuned for caucus results analysis.

In an email to supporters Huckabee told about his trip back to Arkansas to make a few campaign ads, one of which was a negative ad against Mitt Romney.  Huckabee has been accused lately of going negative when all he’s been doing is defending himself against  slew of negative ads run by Romney.  And in the middle of that, Huckabee announced that he would not run the negative ad he made.

That was truly a stroke of genius because it allows Huckabee to have his cake and eat it too!  He is sticking to his promise not to run negative ads while still making sure the negative information gets out.  Not that Romney isn’t doing a good enough job of that himself.  With his onslaught of negative and dishonest ads Romney has invited responses that can only hurt him.  And in the process Romney’s money gets more and better exposure for Huckabee.  In the last few days Huckabee has been all over the news programs defending himself against Romney and Romney has been largely ignored.

Meanwhile, the latest polls have Huckabee leading in Iowa, demonstrating just why Romney feels the need to go on the attack.  With less than two days to go, Romney is running scared and Huckabee continues to move up in the polls.

Stay tuned for more on the Iowa caucus.