I have certainly been a vociferous critic of John McCain. I don’t like the man, I don’t trust him and I think he is bad for both the Republican Party and the country as a whole. But the fact is, he’s going to be the GOP nominee, that much is certain. The real question is, can he beat Obama in November.
From my perspective, choosing between McCain and Obama is like choosing between a firing squad and hanging. I’d prefer not to have to make that choice. As it stands now, I don’t think McCain can beat Obama and the cult of personality. Obama just has so much charisma and McCain is just crotchety. The only possible salvation for a McCain candidacy might be his VP pick.
A lot of names have been bandied about. Two of them, South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford and Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty were on FOX News Sunday last weekend and both were asked about whether they’d accept if asked. Of course both said that’s not a question they would even think about until such time as they were asked. Neither rejected the idea outright either.
I’m a fan of Governor Sanford. I worked in his first campaign and I have a lot of respect for the man. He is the real deal, a true conservative in the Reagan sense of the word. I had hoped that he would run this time around but he chose not to. If he were McCain’s pick for VP I might just reconsider my opposition to McCain.
There is another potential candidate I’d heard nothing about and certainly had not considered until reading an article yesterday in The American Spectator online. The article was titled Que Sarah, Sarah and suggests that a good choice for McCain’s VP pick would be Alaska Governor Sarah Palin. The reasoning for the recommendation is both interesting and sound in my judgement. From the Spectator article:
Sarah Palin, the beautiful conservative Republican governor of Alaska, would be an ideal choice to help McCain slay this unholy ObamaOprah beast which is set to rake in nearly $50 million a month in campaign donations alone, and has intense auxiliary support coming from the unions, George Soros’s billions-infused Democracy Alliance organization, and other rich Democratic networks.
Right out the gate, Governor Palin’s attractiveness is highlighted! I can’t say I’ve ever considered that as a political qualification. Still, there was much more than mere appearance to recommend the governor.
Mrs. Palin is one of conservatism’s own, and would be the first female vice president. She’s young being only 44 (two years behind Senator Obama), she is wildly known to despise government corruption. She defeated a horribly entrenched and corrupt Republican political machine in Alaska. She has a son in the U.S. military. She’s strongly pro-life, belonging, in fact, to Feminists for Life.
There’s a lot there to recommend the admittedly attractive Governor. Her youth is a nice contrast to McCain’s age and her opposition to government corruption is a definite plus. Being strongly pro-life helps too.
I really don’t know much about Governor Palin. I also don’t have any idea if she’s on the short list. I will, however, be doing more research on her. If she is indeed the real deal she could be a powerful force in the McCain campaign. This just might bear watching.
UPDATE:
This was cross posted at forthardknox.com where Jenn Sierra added the following video interview of Governor Palin. In the interview the Governor talks about whether she would consider or be interested in the VP spot. Thanks Jenn!
I was listening to an interview with Florida governor Charlie Crist following his endorsement of John McCain tonight. Among all the glowing compliments he had for McCain was that McCain is a great conservative. I continue to hear this same thing parroted from all manner of so called conservatives. It makes me wonder whether these people are attempting to redefine conservatism or if they have any idea what conservative even means.
The so called conservative pundits have been doing the same thing of course. And McCain characterizes himself as a conservative as well when he knows very well that he is not. And through all of this it appears that the electorate is buying the story. I suppose the old saw that voters have short memories is true.
The point of this post is to point out how contrary to conservatism John McCain’s record and rhetoric really is. In act after and and statement after statement John McCain has demonstrated himself to be anything but a conservative.
A great place to start in examining that record is a piece by Mark Levin at National Review Online entitled The Real McCain Record. In that article Levin chronicles McCain’s record and a plethora of issues. Beginning with McCain-Feingold campaign finance reform (which limited the only class of free speech the founders had in mind, political speech) Levin demonstrates how far from conservatism McCain is and has been. The list includes the McCain-Kennedy amnesty bill, the McCain-Lieberman anti America global warming bill, the McCain-Kennedy-Edwards trial bar bill masquerading as a patient’s bill of rights and McCain’s attempts to decimate the America pharmaceutical industry by importing drugs from Canada.
Then there was McCain’s opposition to both Bush tax cuts. Today McCain claims his opposition was based on his desire to also cut federal spending. Even that reasoning is weak considering that penalizes tax payers for the government’s excesses but that was not his rhetoric at the time. Rather, McCain engaged in typical liberal class warfare rhetoric.
According to Levin, as chairman of the Senate Commerce Committee “McCain was consistently hostile to American enterprise, from media and pharmaceutical companies to technology and energy companies.” Then there’s McCain’s role in the “Gang of 14, which prevented the Republican leadership in the Senate from mounting a rule change that would have ended the systematic use (actual and threatened) of the filibuster to prevent majority approval of judicial nominees.”
Levin then goes on to McCain’s defense record. Of course, McCain supporters claim that he will vigorously prosecute the war against radical Islamic fascism. McCain’s record, however, suggests otherwise.
His supporters point to essentially one policy strength, McCain’s early support for a surge and counterinsurgency. It has now evolved into McCain taking credit for forcing the president to adopt General David Petreaus’s strategy. Where’s the evidence to support such a claim?
Moreover, Iraq is an important battle in our war against the Islamo-fascist threat. But the war is a global war, and it most certainly includes the continental United States, which, after all, was struck on 9/11. How does McCain fare in that regard?
McCain-ACLU — the unprecedented granting of due-process rights to unlawful enemy combatants (terrorists).
According to Gun Owners of America, McCain voted in 2004 to force gun owners to purchase trigger locks when they purchased a handgun. In 2004 he offered an amendment to a gun show bill that would have banned the private sale of handguns at gun shows unless a background check was run. The article includes numerous incidents of McCain treading on the second amendment. That should come as no surprise considering his view of the first amendment.
The Club for Growth said, “While Senator McCain’s economic record contains a number of pro-growth positions, such as his support for school choice and free trade, and his steadfast opposition to wasteful government spending, his overall record is tainted by a marked antipathy towards the free market and individual freedom.”
Let us not forget the Keating Five scandal of 1980s. This from Wizbangblue.com:
Few remember that John McCain only narrowly survived the Keating Five Scandal of the 1980’s involving the corrupt dealings of Charles H. Keating and the Lincoln Savings & Loan. Keating was responsible for the collapse of Lincoln, yet gave McCain and four other members of congress over $1.3 million in political contributions to help influence banking and other legislation. McCain later attempted to whitewash his role in this scandal by becoming the poster boy in the congress for campaign finance reform.
Slate.com has a pretty thorough explanation of what happened and it isn’t pretty for McCain. Charles Keating ended up going to prison for bilking depositors in his Lincoln Savings and Loan out of billions of dollars. It was the biggest of the savings and loan scandals and McCain was wrapped up in it. Keating contributed large sums of money to McCain’s campaign and sought McCain’s assistance with federal investigators. McCain claimed he was just making sure a constituent was being treated fairly but Keating was McCain’s long time friend as well as contributor.
John McCain’s record is one of corruption, consistent opposition to the Republican Party and conservative ideals. He has a reputation for fits of anger and anyone in Washington knows that you cross John McCain at your own peril because he will do everything in his power to get even. He is dishonest and will do and say pretty much anything to get elected.
Much has been said over the last few days about Rush Limbaugh’s assertion that he may not vote for the Republican nominee this year. I’ve had my disagreements with Rush during this campaign season but on this I’m in agreement. If John McCain wins the Republican nomination I will not vote for him. I’ve written about being careful about what you say regarding other Republicans because you may find yourself having to vote for them. In this case I’m not worried about it because there is no conceivable circumstance where I would vote for McCain. He is in the same category as Lindsey Graham. In McCain’s case I won’t vote for the Democrat nominee but I will either vote third party or not vote at all in the presidential race. There is simply no way I can, in good conscience, vote for this man. And I’m convinced that there are many like me.
That brings us to the widespread claim that John McCain is the only candidate who can beat Hillary Clinton (or Obama). I don’t believe McCain can beat either of them. Despite what the polls may say, McCain is the least electable of the Republican candidates. He does not inspire the rank and file of the Republican Party. There is so much bad blood that he would only serve to divide the party. And the claims that those in the middle, the so called moderates, would vote for him in large numbers is, I think, simply untrue. By and large those people will break for the Democrat candidate. McCain will get some of them, to be sure, but not enough to do the job. As for the Republican base, many will stay home. Others will vote third party. Some may even vote for the Democrat in protest. But at the end of the day, McCain will not have the support of the base. He will not have the support of conservatives.
And all those “conservatives” endorsing McCain today are, I believe, doing so because they believe the claim that he is the only one who can win. It is a lie perpetuated by the left with the help of the media. As Rush pointed out to a caller on Friday, what good is the endorsement of the New York Times? Does anyone believe they will endorse McCain over the Democrat nominee? Of course not.
UPDATE:
For even more details about McCain’s record of dishonesty and liberal policies, see Ann Coulter’s column, ‘Straight Talk’ Express Takes Scenic Route to Truth. The more you learn the more you realize McCain is a scoundrel!
It seems the race for the Republican nomination is in some disarray. Some pundits are predicting a brokered convention. Some Fred heads are talking write in votes in an attempt to force a brokered convention. What are the likely scenarios through Super Tuesday?
Giuliani had a solid lead in Florida before the early primaries. Some polls had him over 36%. Then the early primaries happened and Giuliani was not playing in any of them. That changed the political landscape. Now Giuliani, who has spent heavily in Florida, is tied for third with Huckabee who hasn’t spent much and isn’t campaigning there. Pretty much everyone believes that if Giuliani doesn’t win Florida his campaign is over. I think it likely he’ll come in forth.
The polls show Romney and McCain in a statistical tie for first in Florida. I suspect Romney will handily defeat McCain in the sunshine state, giving McCain a likely second place finish. Of course, the large liberal northeastern snow birds could tilt that the other way. Second is as good as last in this winner take all state and if that is where McCain ends up it hurts him a lot. Huckabee will be third which will give him no delegates but it will still energize his campaign because he will again have done it without much money, meaning he has real, solid support.
What does all that mean going into Super Tuesday? I think it will be a three man race at that point with Romney leading the pack. McCain and Huckabee will be fighting for second place.
There are, of course, some wildcards in play. Where will Thompson supporters go? They should go to Huckabee since both Huckabee and Thompson were going for the same constituency. Some will go to Romney because he is the most conservative of the front runners (if you don’t consider Huckabee a front runner). Some, like ALa of Blonde Sagacity, seem determined to go with McCain, primarily I think, because of his war record. I’m mystified by that since these people consider themselves conservatives but they can ignore McCain-Feingold, McCain-Kennedy, etc. But many of them bought pretty much anything Thompson said and Thompson attacked Huckabee relentlessly. That was no surprise considering Huckabee was his main opponent. They were, after all, reaching out to the same constituency. Once again, violation of Reagan’s eleventh commandment takes its toll.
Then there’s the small group who supported Duncan Hunter. Hunter is now endorsing Huckabee, which has to really irk some of the pundits on the right as well as Thompson supporters.
I still think Huckabee has a decent shot but I concede he has an uphill battle and the odds are against him. If, as I am predicting, Giuliani comes in third or forth in Florida, he is toast. His support has already shrunk considerably and without a win in Florida it will pretty much dry up. That leaves a three man race with Romney, McCain and Huckabee going into Super Tuesday.
I am convinced that McCain cannot win overall in states that have closed primaries. In the South Carolina primary McCain did not do well among those who consider themselves conservative or very conservative. He also did not do well among those who are pro-life. Additionally, Protestants and those who attend church regularly went largely for Huckabee (Source). I said last week, McCain barely won South Carolina and it took independents crossing over to give him that win and had Thompson not been in the race Huckabee would likely have won anyway. None of this bodes well for McCain going forward. The best thing he has is the claim of momentum coming out of South Carolina and I’m not convinced he really has any momentum, though the media has worked hard to generate some.
Based on what is known now, I believe Romney is the most likely winner on Super Tuesday. How well Huckabee does will depend on his ability to stretch a dollar and enlist the active support of the organizations that already exist in the FairTax community and the evangelical community. That carried him in the Iowa Straw Poll, it carried him in the Iowa Caucus and it has the potential to carry him on Super Tuesday. The question is, will those organizations mobilize? If they do Huckabee could defy the odds and the pundits and be positioned to take the nomination. If they do not, Romney wins on Super Tuesday. Either way the best McCain can hope for is second and that would mean the end of his candidacy. Indeed, if Romney is the clear winner after Super Tuesday he will likely be the nominee. As much as that thought does not appeal to me, it is infinitely preferable to a McCain win. Still, I have hope, if not giddy optimism, that Huckabee can pull this off.
If, by some miracle, McCain emerges from Super Tuesday a winner, the Republican Party is in real trouble! More on that possible outcome in another post.
I don’t mind saying I’m disappointed. I’ve had harsh words for John McCain and my opinion has not changed. I really thought South Carolinians would not be fooled by him but I was wrong. Of course, independents are what pushed McCain over the top. If you didn’t know, South Carolina has open primaries, something I’ve always disagreed with. Among Republicans and particularly conservatives, Huckabee won. But independents went strongly for McCain.
Because it was still quite close I don’t think second place does too much damage to Huckabee. And, because independents won it for McCain, I’m not convinced that will translate to states that hold closed primaries. I certainly hope it won’t because McCain is many things but conservative is not one of them.
Thompson came in a distant third. Had he been a close third he might have still had a decent position but he was 13-14 points behind Huckabee. In my view that pretty much ends it for Thompson. He may hang in there a little longer but his campaign is effectively over.
Listening to FOX News the consensus seems to be that after today the race has been reduced to McCain, Romney and Giuliani. I pray that isn’t the case considering none of them is conservative. They further believe that if Giuliani doesn’t win Florida it will be down to McCain and Romney If that eventuality occurs, I’ll have to do some serious soul searching about how I will respond. I am a conservative and I don’t know that I could vote for McCain under any circumstances.
I simply do not buy the argument from most of the talking heads on FOX News that this is the end of the road for Huckabee. Second is not what he wanted but the fact is he’s still viable. Florida is next and neither Huckabee nor McCain is going to win there. Next is Super Tuesday and lot of states do not have open primaries. I don’t believe McCain can win in the south without independents and Huckabee will win in those states. What is more likely in my judgement is a spread of delegates following Super Tuesday that has Huckabee squarely in the pack along with others, none with enough delegates to take them over the top.
It’s going to be a while before we know who the Republican nominee is and it could end up in a brokered convention, something we haven’t seen in some time. If that happens who knows what the outcome will be? At that point anyone could get the nomination, even Fred Thompson.
As soon as the polls closed in Michigan FOX News declared Romney the winner in the Republican primary. As the votes continue to be counted Romney’s lead continues to increase. When FOX News called it the lead was six points. As I write this that lead has expanded to nine percent over McCain. The question now is, what impact will this have in South Carolina come Saturday?
Here’s how I see it. McCain was counting on winning in Michigan, or at least running a close second. As it stands now it looks like he’ll be a distant second. That hurts him in South Carolina. The McCain campaign spin is that the large contingent of veterans in South Carolina is well organized and they will carry the day. I don’t think so. I think McCain comes in second or third on Saturday. Those veterans may have done it for him had he won in Michigan but that didn’t happen.
Thompson has really been working hard here the last week and it is clearly paying off. But he came in behind Ron Paul in Michigan which could hurt him as some see him as a lost cause. That can only help Huckabee who hasn’t been sitting on his laurels either. I think Huckabee wins in South Carolina. Thompson comes in second or third. If McCain can hold on to some of the numbers he’s built and comes in second with Thompson third that could spell the end of Thompson’s run. Even Newt Gingrich thinks Huckabee is the man to beat here and he doesn’t see it happening either.
I’ve said before that from an ideological perspective I like Thompson over Huckabee. I wish Thompson had executive experience though. For the most part the voters prefer former Governors over former or current Senators. Unquestionably Huckabee has the executive experience and Thompson doesn’t. But otherwise I really like Thompson’s positions pretty much across the board. The problem is, I don’t think he can win. His abysmal showing in Michigan strengthens that view. Huckabee, on the other hand, has shown his ability to build support and gain momentum in spite of a lack of funding. Now he’s raising money at a much faster rate with the added momentum. Thompson seems to be on fire now but I still think it’s just too late.
The latest Rasmussen poll has McCain with a strong lead in South Carolina, nine points over Huckabee but Real Clear Politics still has gives Huckabee +3.7. While I generally like the Rasmussen poll I have strong doubts about this one. I live here and talk to people. I think I know a little about what’s going on here. McCain may have a small lead going into today but if it’s actually a lead it will shrink following his distant second place finish in Michigan. Besides, people in the south aren’t fans of McCain. I think the Rasmussen poll is way off and I think Saturday will demonstrate that.
The South Carolina primary is a week away and at present Huckabee is projected to win here. Thompson, however, had a very good night in the debate on FOX News Thursday and McCain is pulling out all the stops to prevent a repeat of 2000. What is the likely outcome?
Regular readers will recall that I was an early Thompson supporter. To this day I believe Thompson is a more conservative candidate than Huckabee is, excepting his position on the FairTax. But Fred took so long to enter the race and when he did, he was all but invisible by choice. He gave few interviews and was not to be found in the media. At the same time Mike Huckabee was making his name known and moving up.
I believe that Fred’s showing last Thursday was too little too late. He threw everything he has at Huckabee because they are going after that same voters. It wasn’t enough. Huckabee has the lead and I don’t expect he’ll lose it. In fact, I expect that after the South Carolina primary we may see Fred Thompson drop out of the race. If he doesn’t come in at least second his viability will be in serious jeopardy. If Thompson drops out, who does he endorse and where do his supporters go?
The safe money is on Thompson backing his long time friend McCain. But I suspect many of Thompson’s supporters will have a difficult time moving over with him.
There are plenty of people calling John McCain a conservative. I remember a little online political test I took that said the candidate I agreed the most with was John McCain. That might be true on rhetoric alone but it certainly isn’t true when it comes to his record. John McCain is not a conservative, he is the maverick he’s portrayed himself to be. He’s unreliable when it comes to advancing the conservative agenda. How can Thompson supporters support McCain after Thompson drops out?
If they do not support McCain, where will they go? I can’t see them going with Giuliani who is a social liberal and opponent of the second amendment. What about Romney? Perhaps. But he’s a long time RINO recently converted to conservatism when it suited his ambition. I don’t trust him and I don’t see when conservatives in general should. What does that leave? It leaves Huckabee.
The problem is, Thompson supporters have joined the Huckabee bashing bandwagon. It will be difficult for them to support a guy they’ve invested so much into destroying.
All of you who hate Huckabee need to think about what you will do if he ends up being the nominee. Just like I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about what I’ll do if any of the current slate of RINOs ends up with the nomination. This thing is pretty wide open right now. I think as a party we need to give some serious though to how we’re going to win in November, not just how our candidate can win the nomination.
I vastly prefer the format of the Republican Presidential Forum tonight vs. the standard debates. Issues are dealt with on a much deeper basis and the candidates have the opportunity to actually answer question in depth. Tonight was outstanding. Chris Wallace was relentless in seeking answers to the questions he asked and he was equally tough with all the candidates.
This isn’t really an analysis post, rather, it’s some of my impressions for tonight.
The biggest problem with John McCain is his inherent inability to admit that he has even been wrong. He’s implied he was wrong on immigration reform by switching his position to border enforcement, yet he steadfastly refuses to admit that what he supported previously was amnesty. Chris Wallace hammered this point home and McCain still claimed he’d never supported amnesty and never would. Now McCain says he just wants to move on. Well Senator, admit the facts and moving on will be far easier.
Huckabee was again asked about his support of in-state tuition for the children of illegals and whether his recently announced plan for immigration didn’t “punish the children for the sins of the parents” just like denying in-state tuition would. Huckabee vehemently denied that it would. This is an issue on which I disagree with Huckabee and his response to the question seemed particularly strained. He did, however, point out that Reagan signed the amnesty bill in the 80s.
The fact is, everyone one of the candidates in the forum except Fred Thompson, have significant weaknesses on the issue illegal immigration. Giuliani ran a sanctuary city, McCain supported the amnesty bill, Huckabee supports in-state tuition and Romney had illegals working at his house.
Thompson’s point was clearly the best. Our policy must not encourage more illegal immigration.
Overall I think all the candidates came out okay tonight. No one committed a big gaff and no one hit a home run. The focus group on FOX said Romney clearly won. I completely disagree with them and so did all the pundits. It was a great informational forum and I think the real winner was the voters who watched. If anyone lost tonight it was probably John McCain. He didn’t look good on immigration or taxes. On taxes he still maintains his vote against the Bush tax cuts was right because he wanted to reign in spending. I’m with him on spending but that’s like a drowning man refusing to raise his nose out of the water because he can’t also raise his mouth. Okay, drown then!
As for my candidate, Huckabee, he did fine overall. He clearly defended himself once again against Romney’s “half truths” as Huckabee put it. He isn’t likely to win New Hampshire but he will do good enough there and perhaps better than expected. He’s in this race for the foreseeable future and he will be a force to be reckoned with.
Tomorrow I’ll make my predictions for the New Hampshire primary.
It’s late on caucus night and I’m about to go to bed. I’ll have more to say tomorrow but I didn’t want to close the evening without a few comments about the Iowa caucus and my predictions.
I nailed Huckabee. He won with a significant margin. I was off on Romney and McCain. McCain didn’t get the bounce I expected because Thompson did better than I expected. While I would have liked to see Romney come in third, I’m not at all unhappy with the outcome. I’m glad Thompson ended up in a tie with McCain and I’m really glad Huckabee did so well.
I don’t know that Thompson will be able to hold on past New Hampshire. He did better than I expected today but I don’t think he did well enough. At this point I still think Huckabee is the best bet for conservatives, despite all the claims by Rush and others that he’s not a conservative. No, he’s not Reagan, Rush is right about that. No one in this race is Reagan. But I’m excited about Huckabee.
Just a note about the Democrat caucus. That Hillary came in third is HUGE! I’m no fan of Edwards (he’s totally vapid) but I was rooting him on tonight. Hillary’s campaign is in no way derailed but this is a real hit and she’ll have to rethink he campaign strategy now. It will be interesting to see what she does next.
More tomorrow.
To voters in primary states the Iowa Caucus is not well understood. That’s because a caucus doesn’t work the way a primary works. In a primary everyone comes out and votes for their candidate and the one with the most votes wins. In some states if no one gets a majority of votes there may be a runoff to pick the candidate. The big difference in a caucus is that something like a runoff occurs as part of the caucus itself. Here’s how it works.
Caucuses don’t exactly involve votes per se. Instead caucus goers gather in a large room around their candidate. Any candidate that doesn’t have at least 15% of the caucus goers is ruled not viable and their supporters physically move to the area of their second choice. That’s where it gets interesting and it’s what causes pundit predictions to sometimes be incredibly wrong. Predicting who will have less than 15% isn’t too difficult but predicting where their supporters will go is not so easy.
On the Democrat side Dennis Kucinich has already told his supporters to support Obama should he not make the first cut, which is likely. Indeed on both sides there will be a number of candidates who will not meet the 15% threshold and all their supporters will move to someone else. That makes predictions difficult.
I don’t plan to make predictions on the Democrat side, primarily because I don’t really care. I’m much more interested in the Republican caucus.
Mitt Romney has spent a boat load of money to buy the Iowa caucus and a couple of months ago the conventional wisdom was that he would walk away with it. Today Romney finds himself in a dead heat with Mike Huckabee even though he’s outspent Huckabee by something like 20 to 1. The pundits are pretty much universally saying everything depends on turnout. Which candidates can get their voters out to the caucus will determine the outcome. I agree with that to a point but I think there is more at play here.
The Iowa Straw Poll in August was an eye opener for many. Romney was widely expected to win, as he did, but no one predicted Huckabee to come in second. Since the Iowa Straw Poll is mostly about buying votes Romney clearly had the edge. No one could compete with the money he could spend on the effort. Huckabee, on the other hand, had virtually no money to spend, yet he came in a strong second. There were a couple of reasons for that showing and keep in mind that Huckabee supporters pretty much had to pay their own way to the poll unlike Romney supporters.
First, Huckabee’s very outspoken support of the FairTax was probably the primary reason he showed so well. FairTax supporters are well organized and they mostly support Huckabee because he supports the FairTax so strongly and articulately. While there has been some acknowledgement of the roll of the FairTax by the pundits in the media, I believe they broadly underestimate how big that roll actually is.
Second, Huckabee unapologetically supports the issues so called “values voters” care about. He is pro life, pro family, pro second amendment and against gay marriage. He’s also an outspoken Christian and makes no bones about it. That scares some people who think any Christian will usher in a theocracy but evangelicals by and large are behind him.
The latest polls all have Romney and Huckabee in a tie while no one else has even 15% in the polls. So Romney and Huckabee will certainly make the first cut. Who will be out after the first round?
Giuliani and Paul will not make the first cut. Predicting where their supporters will go is somewhat difficult. Giuliani supporters will likely split between McCain (should he make the first cut) and Romney but Paul supporters are anyone’s guess. As rabid as those folks are they could pack up and go home, not moving to any candidate. If Thompson does not make the first cut his supporters will almost universally go to Huckabee. Romney is viewed as a RINO and Thompson supporters are real conservatives. They will not support the RINO.
McCain has more than 15% in only one poll but I think it likely he will make the first round. If he does not his supporters likely will not go for Romney because Romney has now gone after McCain in some of his ads. That gives most of those supporters to Huckabee if it comes to that in the first round.
Back to the turnout question. Remember how FairTax supporters buoyed Huckabee in the Iowa Straw Poll? I predict the same thing will happen in the caucus. I believe that in the first round Huckabee will have a significant lead over Romney. That will have some impact on the second round as the supporters whose candidates don’t make the first cut decide where to move their support.
Thompson is really the wild card. If he makes the first cut Huckabee could be hurt in the second round and it is then possible that Romney or even McCain could take the lead. I consider than an unlikely but possible outcome.
I predict the first round goes to Huckabee by a fairly wide margin. Romney will be second and McCain third in the first round. All of Thompson’s supporters will go to Huckabee, Giuliani’s supporters will split between McCain and Romney and Paul’s supporters (those who stay) will go to McCain.
In the second round Huckabee’s support grows the most because he gets all of Thompson’s supporters. Romney gains the least in the second round and McCain ends up in the middle.
The end result will be Huckabee first, McCain second and Romney third. That will leave the Romney campaign shell shocked and scrambling to regroup for New Hampshire. Romney will dramatically increase spending in New Hampshire and the number of negative attack ads he runs will increase dramatically as well.
These are, of course, only predictions. They could be wrong and indeed, almost certainly will be wrong in some details. I chose to be pretty specific about how this will go which increases the opportunities to be wrong. But I think the analysis is pretty sound and it will be interesting on Thursday to see how it turns out and how close I come to the actually results.
Stay tuned for caucus results analysis.
