Giuliani had a solid lead in Florida before the early primaries.  Some polls had him over 36%.  Then the early primaries happened and Giuliani was not playing in any of them.  That changed the political landscape.  Now Giuliani, who has spent heavily in Florida, is tied for third with Huckabee who hasn’t spent much and isn’t campaigning there.  Pretty much everyone believes that if Giuliani doesn’t win Florida his campaign is over.  I think it likely he’ll come in forth. 

The polls show Romney and McCain in a statistical tie for first in Florida.  I suspect Romney will handily defeat McCain in the sunshine state, giving McCain a likely second place finish.  Of course, the large liberal northeastern snow birds could tilt that the other way. Second is as good as last in this winner take all state and if that is where McCain ends up it hurts him a lot.  Huckabee will be third which will give him no delegates but it will still energize his campaign because he will again have done it without much money, meaning he has real, solid support.

What does all that mean going into Super Tuesday?  I think it will be a three man race at that point with Romney leading the pack.  McCain and Huckabee will be fighting for second place.

There are, of course, some wildcards in play.  Where will Thompson supporters go?  They should go to Huckabee since both Huckabee and Thompson were going for the same constituency.  Some will go to Romney because he is the most conservative of the front runners (if you don’t consider Huckabee a front runner).  Some, like ALa of Blonde Sagacity, seem determined to go with McCain, primarily I think, because of his war record.  I’m mystified by that since these people consider themselves conservatives but they can ignore McCain-Feingold, McCain-Kennedy, etc.  But many of them bought pretty much anything Thompson said and Thompson attacked Huckabee relentlessly.  That was no surprise considering Huckabee was his main opponent.  They were, after all, reaching out to the same constituency.  Once again, violation of Reagan’s eleventh commandment takes its toll.

Then there’s the small group who supported Duncan Hunter.  Hunter is now endorsing Huckabee, which has to really irk some of the pundits on the right as well as Thompson supporters.

I still think Huckabee has a decent shot but I concede he has an uphill battle and the odds are against him.  If, as I am predicting, Giuliani comes in third or forth in Florida, he is toast.  His support has already shrunk considerably and without a win in Florida it will pretty much dry up.  That leaves a three man race with Romney, McCain and Huckabee going into Super Tuesday.

I am convinced that McCain cannot win overall in states that have closed primaries.  In the South Carolina primary McCain did not do well among those who consider themselves conservative or very conservative.  He also did not do well among those who are pro-life.  Additionally, Protestants and those who attend church regularly went largely for Huckabee (Source).  I said last week, McCain barely won South Carolina and it took independents crossing over to give him that win and had Thompson not been in the race Huckabee would likely have won anyway.  None of this bodes well for McCain going forward.  The best thing he has is the claim of momentum coming out of South Carolina and I’m not convinced he really has any momentum, though the media has worked hard to generate some.

Based on what is known now, I believe Romney is the most likely winner on Super Tuesday.  How well Huckabee does will depend on his ability to stretch a dollar and enlist the active support of the organizations that already exist in the FairTax community and the evangelical community.  That carried him in the Iowa Straw Poll, it carried him in the Iowa Caucus and it has the potential to carry him on Super Tuesday.  The question is, will those organizations mobilize?  If they do Huckabee could defy the odds and the pundits and be positioned to take the nomination.  If they do not, Romney wins on Super Tuesday.  Either way the best McCain can hope for is second and that would mean the end of his candidacy.  Indeed, if Romney is the clear winner after Super Tuesday he will likely be the nominee.  As much as that thought does not appeal to me, it is infinitely preferable to a McCain win.  Still, I have hope, if not giddy optimism, that Huckabee can pull this off.

If, by some miracle, McCain emerges from Super Tuesday a winner, the Republican Party is in real trouble!  More on that possible outcome in another post.

Because it was still quite close I don’t think second place does too much damage to Huckabee.  And, because independents won it for McCain, I’m not convinced that will translate to states that hold closed primaries.  I certainly hope it won’t because McCain is many things but conservative is not one of them.

Thompson came in a distant third.  Had he been a close third he might have still had a decent position but he was 13-14 points behind Huckabee.  In my view that pretty much ends it for Thompson.  He may hang in there a little longer but his campaign is effectively over.

Listening to FOX News the consensus seems to be that after today the race has been reduced to McCain, Romney and Giuliani.  I pray that isn’t the case considering none of them is conservative.  They further believe that if Giuliani doesn’t win Florida it will be down to McCain and Romney  If that eventuality occurs, I’ll have to do some serious soul searching about how I will respond.  I am a conservative and I don’t know that I could vote for McCain under any circumstances.

I simply do not buy the argument from most of the talking heads on FOX News that this is the end of the road for Huckabee.  Second is not what he wanted but the fact is he’s still viable.  Florida is next and neither Huckabee nor McCain is going to win there.  Next is Super Tuesday and lot of states do not have open primaries.  I don’t believe McCain can win in the south without independents and Huckabee will win in those states.  What is more likely in my judgement is a spread of delegates following Super Tuesday that has Huckabee squarely in the pack along with others, none with enough delegates to take them over the top.

It’s going to be a while before we know who the Republican nominee is and it could end up in a brokered convention, something we haven’t seen in some time.  If that happens who knows what the outcome will be?  At that point anyone could get the nomination, even Fred Thompson.

Here’s how I see it.  McCain was counting on winning in Michigan, or at least running a close second.  As it stands now it looks like he’ll be a distant second.  That hurts him in South Carolina.  The McCain campaign spin is that the large contingent of veterans in South Carolina is well organized and they will carry the day.  I don’t think so.  I think McCain comes in second or third on Saturday.  Those veterans may have done it for him had he won in Michigan but that didn’t happen.

Thompson has really been working hard here the last week and it is clearly paying off.  But he came in behind Ron Paul in Michigan which could hurt him as some see him as a lost cause.  That can only help Huckabee who hasn’t been sitting on his laurels either.  I think Huckabee wins in South Carolina.  Thompson comes in second or third.  If McCain can hold on to some of the numbers he’s built and comes in second with Thompson third that could spell the end of Thompson’s run.  Even Newt Gingrich thinks Huckabee is the man to beat here and he doesn’t see it happening either.

I’ve said before that from an ideological perspective I like Thompson over Huckabee.  I wish Thompson had executive experience though.  For the most part the voters prefer former Governors over former or current Senators.  Unquestionably Huckabee has the executive experience and Thompson doesn’t.  But otherwise I really like Thompson’s positions pretty much across the board.  The problem is, I don’t think he can win.  His abysmal showing in Michigan strengthens that view.  Huckabee, on the other hand, has shown his ability to build support and gain momentum in spite of a lack of funding.  Now he’s raising money at a much faster rate with the added momentum.  Thompson seems to be on fire now but I still think it’s just too late.

The latest Rasmussen poll has McCain with a strong lead in South Carolina, nine points over Huckabee but Real Clear Politics still has gives Huckabee +3.7.  While I generally like the Rasmussen poll I have strong doubts about this one.  I live here and talk to people.  I think I know a little about what’s going on here.  McCain may have a small lead going into today but if it’s actually a lead it will shrink following his distant second place finish in Michigan.  Besides, people in the south aren’t fans of McCain.  I think the Rasmussen poll is way off and I think Saturday will demonstrate that.

Regular readers will recall that I was an early Thompson supporter. To this day I believe Thompson is a more conservative candidate than Huckabee is, excepting his position on the FairTax. But Fred took so long to enter the race and when he did, he was all but invisible by choice. He gave few interviews and was not to be found in the media. At the same time Mike Huckabee was making his name known and moving up.

I believe that Fred’s showing last Thursday was too little too late. He threw everything he has at Huckabee because they are going after that same voters. It wasn’t enough. Huckabee has the lead and I don’t expect he’ll lose it. In fact, I expect that after the South Carolina primary we may see Fred Thompson drop out of the race. If he doesn’t come in at least second his viability will be in serious jeopardy. If Thompson drops out, who does he endorse and where do his supporters go?

The safe money is on Thompson backing his long time friend McCain. But I suspect many of Thompson’s supporters will have a difficult time moving over with him.

There are plenty of people calling John McCain a conservative. I remember a little online political test I took that said the candidate I agreed the most with was John McCain. That might be true on rhetoric alone but it certainly isn’t true when it comes to his record. John McCain is not a conservative, he is the maverick he’s portrayed himself to be. He’s unreliable when it comes to advancing the conservative agenda. How can Thompson supporters support McCain after Thompson drops out?

If they do not support McCain, where will they go? I can’t see them going with Giuliani who is a social liberal and opponent of the second amendment. What about Romney? Perhaps. But he’s a long time RINO recently converted to conservatism when it suited his ambition. I don’t trust him and I don’t see when conservatives in general should. What does that leave? It leaves Huckabee.

The problem is, Thompson supporters have joined the Huckabee bashing bandwagon. It will be difficult for them to support a guy they’ve invested so much into destroying.

All of you who hate Huckabee need to think about what you will do if he ends up being the nominee. Just like I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about what I’ll do if any of the current slate of RINOs ends up with the nomination. This thing is pretty wide open right now. I think as a party we need to give some serious though to how we’re going to win in November, not just how our candidate can win the nomination.

This isn’t really an analysis post, rather, it’s some of my impressions for tonight.

The biggest problem with John McCain is his inherent inability to admit that he has even been wrong.  He’s implied he was wrong on immigration reform by switching his position to border enforcement, yet he steadfastly refuses to admit that what he supported previously was amnesty.  Chris Wallace hammered this point home and McCain still claimed he’d never supported amnesty and never would.  Now McCain says he just wants to move on.  Well Senator, admit the facts and moving on will be far easier.

Huckabee was again asked about his support of in-state tuition for the children of illegals and whether his recently announced plan for immigration didn’t “punish the children for the sins of the parents” just like denying in-state tuition would.  Huckabee vehemently denied that it would.  This is an issue on which I disagree with Huckabee and his response to the question seemed particularly strained.  He did, however, point out that Reagan signed the amnesty bill in the 80s.

The fact is, everyone one of the candidates in the forum except Fred Thompson, have significant weaknesses on the issue illegal immigration.  Giuliani ran a sanctuary city, McCain supported the amnesty bill, Huckabee supports in-state tuition and Romney had illegals working at his house.

Thompson’s point was clearly the best.  Our policy must not encourage more illegal immigration.

Overall I think all the candidates came out okay tonight.  No one committed a big gaff and no one hit a home run.  The focus group on FOX said Romney clearly won.  I completely disagree with them and so did all the pundits.  It was a great informational forum and I think the real winner was the voters who watched.  If anyone lost tonight it was probably John McCain.  He didn’t look good on immigration or taxes.  On taxes he still maintains his vote against the Bush tax cuts was right because he wanted to reign in spending.  I’m with him on spending but that’s like a drowning man refusing to raise his nose out of the water because he can’t also raise his mouth.  Okay, drown then!

As for my candidate, Huckabee, he did fine overall.  He clearly defended himself once again against Romney’s “half truths” as Huckabee put it.  He isn’t likely to win New Hampshire but he will do good enough there and perhaps better than expected.  He’s in this race for the foreseeable future and he will be a force to be reckoned with.

Tomorrow I’ll make my predictions for the New Hampshire primary.

I nailed Huckabee.  He won with a significant margin.  I was off on Romney and McCain.  McCain didn’t get the bounce I expected because Thompson did better than I expected.  While I would have liked to see Romney come in third, I’m not at all unhappy with the outcome.  I’m glad Thompson ended up in a tie with McCain and I’m really glad Huckabee did so well.

I don’t know that Thompson will be able to hold on past New Hampshire.  He did better than I expected today but I don’t think he did well enough.  At this point I still think Huckabee is the best bet for conservatives, despite all the claims by Rush and others that he’s not a conservative.  No, he’s not Reagan, Rush is right about that.  No one in this race is Reagan.  But I’m excited about Huckabee.

Just a note about the Democrat caucus.  That Hillary came in third is HUGE!  I’m no fan of Edwards (he’s totally vapid) but I was rooting him on tonight.  Hillary’s campaign is in no way derailed but this is a real hit and she’ll have to rethink he campaign strategy now.  It will be interesting to see what she does next.

More tomorrow.

Caucuses don’t exactly involve votes per se.  Instead caucus goers gather in a large room around their candidate.  Any candidate that doesn’t have at least 15% of the caucus goers is ruled not viable and their supporters physically move to the area of their second choice. That’s where it gets interesting and it’s what causes pundit predictions to sometimes be incredibly wrong.  Predicting who will have less than 15% isn’t too difficult but predicting where their supporters will go is not so easy.

On the Democrat side Dennis Kucinich has already told his supporters to support Obama should he not make the first cut, which is likely.  Indeed on both sides there will be a number of candidates who will not meet the 15% threshold and all their supporters will move to someone else.  That makes predictions difficult.

I don’t plan to make predictions on the Democrat side, primarily because I don’t really care.  I’m much more interested in the Republican caucus.

Mitt Romney has spent a boat load of money to buy the Iowa caucus and a couple of months ago the conventional wisdom was that he would walk away with it.  Today Romney finds himself in a dead heat with Mike Huckabee even though he’s outspent Huckabee by something like 20 to 1.  The pundits are pretty much universally saying everything depends on turnout.  Which candidates can get their voters out to the caucus will determine the outcome.  I agree with that to a point but I think there is more at play here.

The Iowa Straw Poll in August was an eye opener for many.  Romney was widely expected to win, as he did, but no one predicted Huckabee to come in second.  Since the Iowa Straw Poll is mostly about buying votes Romney clearly had the edge.  No one could compete with the money he could spend on the effort.  Huckabee, on the other hand, had virtually no money to spend, yet he came in a strong second.  There were a couple of reasons for that showing and keep in mind that Huckabee supporters pretty much had to pay their own way to the poll unlike Romney supporters.

First, Huckabee’s very outspoken support of the FairTax was probably the primary reason he showed so well.  FairTax supporters are well organized and they mostly support Huckabee because he supports the FairTax so strongly and articulately.  While there has been some acknowledgement of the roll of the FairTax by the pundits in the media, I believe they broadly underestimate how big that roll actually is.

Second, Huckabee unapologetically supports the issues so called “values voters” care about.  He is pro life, pro family, pro second amendment and against gay marriage.  He’s also an outspoken Christian and makes no bones about it.  That scares some people who think any Christian will usher in a theocracy but evangelicals by and large are behind him.

The latest polls all have Romney and Huckabee in a tie while no one else has even 15% in the polls.  So Romney and Huckabee will certainly make the first cut.  Who will be out after the first round? 

Giuliani and Paul will not make the first cut.  Predicting where their supporters will go is somewhat difficult.  Giuliani supporters will likely split between McCain (should he make the first cut) and Romney but Paul supporters are anyone’s guess.  As rabid as those folks are they could pack up and go home, not moving to any candidate.  If Thompson does not make the first cut his supporters will almost universally go to Huckabee.  Romney is viewed as a RINO and Thompson supporters are real conservatives.  They will not support the RINO.

McCain has more than 15% in only one poll but I think it likely he will make the first round.  If he does not his supporters likely will not go for Romney because Romney has now gone after McCain in some of his ads. That gives most of those supporters to Huckabee if it comes to that in the first round.

Back to the turnout question.  Remember how FairTax supporters buoyed Huckabee in the Iowa Straw Poll?  I predict the same thing will happen in the caucus.  I believe that in the first round Huckabee will have a significant lead over Romney.  That will have some impact on the second round as the supporters whose candidates don’t make the first cut decide where to move their support.

Thompson is really the wild card.  If he makes the first cut Huckabee could be hurt in the second round and it is then possible that Romney or even McCain could take the lead.  I consider than an unlikely but possible outcome.

I predict the first round goes to Huckabee by a fairly wide margin.  Romney will be second and McCain third in the first round.  All of Thompson’s supporters will go to Huckabee, Giuliani’s supporters will split between McCain and Romney and Paul’s supporters (those who stay) will go to McCain.

In the second round Huckabee’s support grows the most because he gets all of Thompson’s supporters.  Romney gains the least in the second round and McCain ends up in the middle.

The end result will be Huckabee first, McCain second and Romney third.  That will leave the Romney campaign shell shocked and scrambling to regroup for New Hampshire.  Romney will dramatically increase spending in New Hampshire and the number of negative attack ads he runs will increase dramatically as well.

These are, of course, only predictions.  They could be wrong and indeed, almost certainly will be wrong in some details.  I chose to be pretty specific about how this will go which increases the opportunities to be wrong.  But I think the analysis is pretty sound and it will be interesting on Thursday to see how it turns out and how close I come to the actually results.

Stay tuned for caucus results analysis.

Then in August I posted about Huckabee being the big winner in Iowa.  At that point I began to fell like maybe Governor Huckabee actually had a chance.  I said then:

Huckabee is the man to watch over the next few weeks.  His ability to raise money just got a huge shot in the arm and if he can translate that into campaign cash and a solid organization he may end up as the man to beat. 

Still, I was hanging on to Thompson because I believed he was the best man to communicate a solid vision for the country.  I was, admittedly, uneasy about how long Thompson was taking to make his announcement.

Finally, on September 6, Thompson announced his candidacy, doing so on Leno and eschewing the Republican debate the same night.  That bothered me.  Then he promptly disappeared from the media.  Since then he has largely refused interviews with the major media, preferring to stick with the internet.

Meanwhile, Mike Huckabee has continued to move forward.  He has seen his position in the polls slowly move up and up.  Yesterday he took 51% at the values voters conference in Florida.  51%!  That tells you something about where conservatives really stand.

For the last several weeks I’ve been leaning more and more to Huckabee and I’ve become more and more disenchanted with Thompson.  At the conference Thompson spent a grand total of about five minutes talking to the crowd and left.  Thompson hasn’t had a major fall since his announcement but neither has he done anything at all to distinguish himself.

Tonight the Republicans will square off again in Orlando.  The theme seems to be, who is the real conservative?  Clearly Rudy has no claim to that moniker.  Romney has his own problems with so many position changes looking like changes for convenience rather than true convictions.  That’s to say nothing about the problem of his Mormonism that he refuses to directly address.  All that leaves McCain, Thompson and Huckabee.  Of the three I believe Huckabee far outshines the rest. 

McCain will never get the nomination.  He has just stabbed conservatives in the back too many times.  I could not vote for the man and I know many many others who can’t either.  Thompson, as mentioned earlier, simply isn’t doing anything to distinguish himself.  He’s hanging on but that won’t last much longer if he doesn’t do something to stand out.

Then there is Mike Huckabee.  He is a solid conservative.  He has no record of changing his position on lots of issues for the sake of expedience.  He has 10+ years of executive experience.  He is the strongest supporter of the FairTax I know of and the most articulate.  I’ve seen dozens of interviews with Huckabee and I have yet to see him stumble or get tripped up.  The man knows what he is talking about and he speaks with conviction.  The more he talks the more people turn to him.

I am now convinced that Mike Huckabee is the best hope for the Republican party.  He is honest, heartfelt, a solid conservative and likeable to boot!  I said in June, “It’s still very early and I’m not prepared to endorse anyone but Thompson at this point. But a lot could happen between now and next February. I’ll be keeping a close eye on Mike Huckabee.”  Well that’s precisely what I’ve been doing and now I am prepared to endorse Mike Huckabee for President of the United States.

Watch for the next post where I’ll give you Glenn Beck’s Huckabee interview.  It is lengthy enough to really cover some ground and give you a realy chance to examine Huckabee and see if he is a man you can support.

From the email sent to the Friends of Fred email list:

We enter this campaign in a strong position. Fred is consistently near the top in the polls, and conservatives across the country have put together the closest thing to a draft in recent presidential campaign history in an effort to bring about this day. The next few weeks will only serve to build upon those efforts, with house parties, visits to the early primary states, and a homecoming in Lawrenceburg, TN on the 15th.

To be sure, support for Thompson has been exceedingly high, particularly for a potential candidate who has not announced.  Just today, the new GOP Straw Poll (see post below) shows Thompson leading with around 7000 votes to this point.  In virtually every poll Thompson is either first or second.

Announcing via webcast could be a stroke of genius.  Thompson’s efforts so far have been largely on the internet and by announcing via webcast he is rewarding his early supporters.

By announcing via webcast, Fred is able to take his consistently mainstream conservative message directly to the voters, who are already responding to that message with a strong upwelling of grassroots support. The webcast and the following campaign tour will play to Fred’s strengths, a consistent record of conservatism, his ability to clearly spread his message, and his ability to work with and connect with Americans from all walks of life.

To find a house party in your area, see the widget in the right sidebar.  If you cannot find a house party in your area, consider hosting one yourself.

In an apparent effort to maintain support and enthusiasm Thompson has revamped his web site, ImWithFred.com.  Emails went out to supporters today promising weekly updates, a move that comes none too soon for impatient supporters.

I’ve been an active, vocal supporter of Fred Thompson and so far I’m sticking with that.  But I’m not sure how long I can maintain that support without an announcement.  There’s a second tier candidate I’ve blogged about before that I have my eye in, Mike Huckabee.  I’ve said that if Thompson doesn’t run I’ll be supporting Huckabee.  Indeed, if Huckabee had more support I might be behind him now.  But I have to consider electability as well as positions.  Huckabee has been gaining though.  He’s not exactly top tier but he’s saying the right things, including very vocal support for the FairTax.

Thompson says his support is growing and the polls seem to back that up but I don’t see how that can last.  If Thompson doesn’t announce soon I believe he’ll see his support begin to slip.  So here’s hoping Thompson makes a move soon.

Thompson spoke for about 25 minutes and covered a lot of ground. In a speech of that length you can either cover one topic with some depth or you can skim the surface of a lot of topics. Since there was no overriding theme, Thompson chose the latter. What follows is my account of Thompson’s comments today.

Senator Thompson had quite a few quotable moments. The first was in his recounting of his visit with Former Prime Minister Thatcher and her relationship with Ronald Reagan. Referring to the accomplishments of the two Thompson said “strength doesn’t cause wars, strength prevents wars.” He then recounted how following the end of the cold war the US cut defense spending by more than 1/3, military development by 50% and allowed our intelligence operations to languish, particularly our human intelligence capabilities. He pointed out that through numerous attacks on our assets around the world we did little to nothing until 9/11 and the war in Iraq.

Thompson showed a real grasp of the situation we face in Islamic fascism. He said that our enemy sees this conflict as having already gone on for a hundred years and they are prepared to go another hundred if necessary. He said that people just don’t understand or appreciate that fact. He went on to say that in previous conflicts the country always pulled together but now partisan politics takes precedence. A big applause moment was when Thompson talked about the sons of two friends who are serving in Iraq and have re-upped. He said they had hope and optimism and he wasn’t going to give up hope so long as they held it. Thompson said we need leadership to bring us together, implying that he can provide that leadership.

In the subject of illegal immigration Thompson agreed that it was dividing our party but he expressed optimism that the party would get past it. He emphasized that the resolution had to come from consideration of what was best for the country, not what was best for either party. He said that thousands of illegal immigrants are not Mexicans and that is a grave risk to national security. Thompson said that we could not hope to protect our country until we secure our borders and he flatly said that the current immigration reform bill is not what is best for this country. He rightly pointed out that we got the same promises in 1986 that we are getting today and there is no reason to believe them now. He also pointed out that the US grants one million green cards per year now so claims that we are taking an anti-immigration stand are unfounded. In another quotable moment Thompson said “we welcome legal immigrants and this is home to all of us but we get to decide who comes to our home.” Thompson said the government can’t handle the backlog of four million legal immigrants waiting on processing now so how can they possibly handle 12-20 million more?

On the question of taxes Thompson said that low taxes benefit everyone but the tax and spend types want to divide up a static pie instead of increasing the size of the pie so everyone gets a larger piece, precisely Reagan’s position. He did not endorse the FairTax but he did say that we are bankrupting the country, the government and the economy and that waiting to fix the problem hurts everyone.

In a great moment for religious conservatives Thompson, referring to the Declaration of Independence, said that our rights come from God and not from government. He went on to say that our founding fathers knew what they were doing when they set up our federal form of government with separation of powers. The implication seemed to be that we’ve strayed far from that ideal now. While not expressly mentioning abortion or assisted suicide, Thompson emphasized the sanctity of human life.

Thompson said we need a new coalition of people coming together for the good of the country. The clear implication was that he could build that coalition. That is exactly what Ronald Reagan did. He built a coalition of people from both parties, not in government but in the electorate. Reagan won two landslide victories by convincing democrats to vote for him.

I’ve often said this country is floundering because no leader has been able to cast a vision that the people caught hold of. Bush seems to understand the threat from Islamic fascism but he has utterly failed to articulate that to the people in a way that grabs their attention. There have been a lot of comparisons between Reagan and Thompson, not the least being they are both actors. Some have pointed out that Thompson is not like Reagan in the sense that Reagan has a long history of conservative intellectual thought and writing. Thompson clearly does not have that.

There is, however, one comparison that really works and that is the ability to communicate. Reagan could cast a vision and so can Thompson. On all the issues I’ve heard him speak on Thompson has been on the right side. He certainly was today. He may not be the conservative intellectual Reagan was but he has that long missing ability to communicate in a way that is at once understandable and compelling. He has the ability to cast a vision. I believe that he can bring in a lot of Democrats and that could easily turn the tide, not just in the election but also in terms of moving this country forward as a people with a common vision for the future. Unless this country gets behind a strong leader who is willing to do what it takes, we are in for a very difficult and painful future. As Churchill said, “sometimes it isn’t enough to do your best, sometimes you have to do what is required.” We, as a country, must be willing to do what is required if we expect our future to look anything like our past. It is my belief that of all the Republican candidates, Fred Dalton Thompson is far and away the best man to cast the vision for this country.

As an ending note let me relate my brief exchange with Thompson today. There was a large crowd of people who wanted to meet Thompson and shake his hand and I was in the middle of it. When I finally got the chance I extended my hand and Thompson took it. He has a real man’s handshake. His large hand wrapped around mine with a firm grip the way a man is supposed to shake hands, not bone crushing but you know you’re shaking hands. I told him that a lot of people were really excited at the prospect of him running and I was one of them. He smiled and thanked me. Then I told him that all those people, including myself, were going to be really disappointed if he decided against running. He grinned real big and said, “so will I.”

————–
NOTE: I recorded Thompson’s speech on my cell phone. The audio isn’t the best in the world and there is considerable background noise but it you can hear what Thompson had to say. The format is a peculiar cell phone format and I can’t find a way to convert it to mp3. I’m thinking about uploading it anyway since Real Player will play it but I’d prefer to convert it to mp3 so everyone can use it. If you know a good way to convert it, please let me know. Alternatively, if you have the ability to convert it I’ll be happy to send it to you for conversion if you’ll send the converted file back. Just let me know.

UPDATE:  Thanks to Orlando the file is now in mp3 format.  To listen to it click here.

Technorati : Fred Thompson

Technorati : Fred Thompson

Right off the bat Thompson announced his new website, ImWithFred.com. On the site Thompson is seeking volunteers and financial supporters. You’ll notice the I’m With Fred contribution widget to the felt on this site.

After listening to the interview, I didn’t really hear anything I didn’t already know, other than the website. But I did have confirmed what I believed about Thompson already. I’m convinced he’s the right man at the right time for the Republican Party and this country.

I encourage everyone to visit ImWithFred.com and sign up. In addition to financial contributions you can sign up to blog about Thompson, spread the word through emails, make phone calls and go door to door. If conservatives want an alternative to the bunch currently running for the Republican nomination, we have to provide the legwork to make it happen.

Thompson, the “Law & Order” star and former U.S. senator from Tennessee, has been publicly coy, even as people close to him have been furiously preparing for a late entry into the wide-open contest. But the advisers said Thompson dropped all pretenses on Tuesday afternoon during a conference call with more than 100 potential donors, each of whom was urged to raise about $50,000.

In the story, Allen says Thompson plans on formally announcing his candidacy over the forth of July holiday. Thompson will apparently announce in Nashville where her will begin his campaign in the trademark red pickup truck he used with his Senate campaigns.

A testing-the-waters committee is to be formed June 4 so Thompson can start raising money, and staffers will go on the payroll in early June, the organizers said. A policy team has been formed, but remains under wraps.

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Campaign officials said they have every indication Thompson will declare his candidacy, but cautioned that he could still decide not to run or to postpone the announcement. Mark Corallo, the campaign spokesman, said: “He is seriously considering getting in and doing everything he has to do to come to a final decision.”

Folks, this is great news, although it is not unexpected. Fred’s got a plan and he’s working that plan, apparently to good effect. Many have feared the loss of ground Thompson has had in terms of fund raising but he appears to be raising money anyway and since he’s not yet in the race, he has no FEC reporting requirements.

Thompson urged the supporters to muster a major show of financial force in early July, just after the June 30 deadline for second-quarter financial reports to the Federal Election Commission.

Thompson’s top rivals – Rudolph Giuliani, John McCain and Mitt Romney – will have a formidable advantage for the current quarter, so he plans to show his muscle right after that.

I don’t know about you but I’m excited. June 4th, the date Thompson forms his exploratory committee, can’t come fast enough! Let the race begin for real.

President Bush, along with RINOs Lindsey Graham and John McCain and Democrat Ted Kennedy, have reached a “compromise” for comprehensive immigration reform. That phrase, “comprehensive immigration reform” is code for amnesty. President Bush announced that the plan does not grant amnesty but any bill that allows aliens currently in this country illegally to pay a fine and get on a “path to citizenship” or permanent residency is an amnesty bill.

Virtually no one likes this bill. Backers are reluctant to discuss specifics beyond saying illegals will have to pay a fine and return home for a period of time. It is unlikely that the return home will be enforced or, if enforced, that illegals will have to stay for any significant period of time. How do you track more the more than 12 million people? Maybe set up another inefficient federal agency? And a $5,000 fine is a price many around the world would gladly pay for legal entrance into the united states. Yet those who have not entered this country illegally don’t get any special treatment and path toward citizenship.

Additionally, the Z visa only requires the head of household to return to the home country. His family can stay and there is no real idea of just how long he might have to stay in his home country but one official said it could be as short as one day. Convince me that won’t encourage more illegal immigration! Only a fool could believe that tail.

While this compromise seems historic, it appears there is still an uphill battle. Both conservatives and liberals have problems with it. Conservatives, of course, oppose the amnesty aspect of the proposal. Liberals oppose the change in immigration standards away from uniting families and toward more emphasis on skills.

Still, there is great interest on both sides of the aisle for passing some kind of comprehensive immigration reform this year. With that attitude, it is all but certain that, without outside effort, this will become a reality in some form before it’s all over. Conservatives must stay in touch with their Senators and Congressmen and keep the pressure on. This must be stopped. Amnesty did not work 20 some odd years ago and it won’t work today.

For my money, the way to deal with illegals currently in this country is to make it so painful for companies to employee them that simply won’t take the risk. When illegals find they cannot find work and support their families, much less send money back home, they will go home voluntarily. If there is not reason to be here, why would the stay? The incentives to come here illegally must be removed. That, along with real border enforcement will solve our problem. Then and only then we can look at a guest worker program and at that point, those who can speak English will have an advantage, regardless of whether they were previously here illegally

Meanwhile, Fred Thompson said that the bill and the attempt to create any comprehensive immigration reform should be scrapped until the border is secured. YEAH! That’s a position I can really get behind.

Click here to view the embedded video.

Click here to view the embedded video.

There is very little doubt in my mind that Thompson is running. All he seems to be waiting on is wrapping up his obligation to Law & Order. Look for that June announcement. Can you say “President Thompson?”

News is coming out this morning that Thompson has said he was diagnosed with a form of lymphoma in 2004. Thompson says he is in remission and that his life expectancy is not affected by the lymphoma. It is not clear whether the announcement will affect Thompson’s possible bid for the presidency. Considering the diagnosis is three years old, Thompson would have considered it already when he announced he was considering a run.

Stay tuned for breaking news.

UPDATE:

It looked for bit as if Thompson wouldn’t make it on Cavuto today because of the press conference with the Duke Lacrosse players. But appear he did and it was an enlightening interview. To start, Thompson did not announce his candidacy. He did make it clear, however, that he is serious about this. The announcement about his lymphoma was precisely because he is so serious about his possible run. Thompson said he knew it would come out and he wanted to make sure there were no misunderstandings about it. Thompson’s lymphoma is, apparently, a type that is extremely non-aggressive and he said it doesn’t impact his life at all.

Thompson did say that if those of us who have been encouraging him to run decided that, as a result of this announcement we weren’t so comfortable with him running, he would decide against a run. I do not expect that possibility to come to fruition. I remain convinced that Thompson is the best man for the job and I expect others in the blogosphere who have supported him will continue to do so.

Thompson said we have the money issue backward when it comes to presidential campaigns. He said that if the people support him the money will be there. He also indicated a willingness to do what Reagan did should he become president, that is, go directly to the people rather than make deals with Congress. He said that we live in perilous times and that the country needs to understand that. He seems to think he can help the country understand that I I agree with him.

I have the impression that Fred Thompson is close to making a decisions. The lymphoma announcement takes him that much closer to doing so.