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Super Tuesday Delivers Surprises

6 February 2008

The political landscape is taking on a firmer shape for Republicans following Super Tuesday yesterday. The news is, of course, not good for conservatives. As expected, John McCain did quite well. But there were some surprises. Mike Huckabee did better than predicted and Mitt Romney did worse than expected. In West Virginia, Romney expected to win but last minute maneuvers snatched that victory away and gave it to Huckabee. Two factors made that happen. First, Ron Paul’s campaign cut a deal to send their supporters to Huckabee in exchange for three delegates. Second, when McCain saw he could not win there, he sent his supporter to Huckabee to deny the win to Romney. For his part, Romney was very unhappy about that.

There has been some recent speculation that McCain and Huckabee are working together to sink Romney, leading to a McCain win and Huckabee tapped as VP. The events of yesterday only served to bolster that speculation. I hope that isn’t the case but i have to admit that Huckabee’s harsh criticism of Romney while at the same time going out of his way to make nice with McCain is disturbing. Time will tell whether such a conspiracy actually exists.

At this point both Huckabee and Romney have suggested the other drop out. Both claim this is a two man race and each believes he is the second man. Following the returns I tend to believe Huckabee is the stronger national candidate. That may seem counter intuitive considering he is in third in the delegate count. But consider how yesterday might have been different has either Huckabee or Romney not been in the race. It appears that Huckabee would have come out the better with Romney out than Romney would have if Huckabee had been out. Combine that with the extraordinary amount of money Romney has spent with not more success than he’s had and Huckabee’s success with little money. Clearly Huckabee is the superior candidate. He continues to defy the pundits and pollsters predictions.

One truly frustrating aspect of Huckabee’s media coverage is the constant refrain that he only attracts the evangelical vote. The fact is, he is not running on Christianity. He is primarily running on the FairTax but you never see any reference to that in the media. Even FOX News ignores it. The fact is, the FairTax community largely supports Huckabee whether they are Christian or not. Yes, he appeals to evangelicals. But if that was his only appeal he wouldn’t be where he is.

The FairTax is a huge issue. I’m part of that movement and I’ve been to numerous FairTax events as well as candidate events. Fred Thompson commented at one that if there was anything he could count on it was a large contingent of FairTax supporters everywhere he appeared. But the media pretends we don’t exist. The fact is, there is a reasonable probability that FairTax supporters will carry Huckabee to the nomination. Until the media picks up on that they will continue to underestimate Huckabee.

Following Super Tuesday McCain is more than half way to the nomination with more than 600 delegates. Both Huckabee and Romney lag far behind. But there are still a lot of primaries left and a lot of delegates up for grabs. I wouldn’t count Huckabee out just yet. Romney, on the other hand, seems to be headed down even as Huckabee continues to climb. This flies in the face of what I wrote last week, describing Romney as the last hope for the GOP. But the fact is, there is just too much distrust and dislike for Romney. He is perceived as a RINO, even if he’s genuinely had a change of heart on all those conservative issues. He also comes off as arrogant which doesn’t inspire confidence. Yes, he may well be a financial and business genius but when he appears to be looking down his nose at everyone else, that just doesn’t sit well. I don’t see him changing so I think he’s reached his peak and it’s all downhill for him now. He cannot spend enough money to turn that around. He may be able to prevent Huckabee from getting the nomination but there is zero chance he’ll get it.

McCain remains as problematic as ever. He’s making an attempt to reach out to conservatives but who can believe he’s serious? He’s doing what he has to do to get elected. I don’t expect it will fly. The real question is, can he continue his charge? Many will say the answer is an obvious yes and maybe it is. But Huckabee did far better yesterday than anyone expected. That may well translate into increased support in the remaining primaries.

The future for the GOP continues to look bleak but there is still hope. I recant everything I said in the earlier post about Romney. Conservatives need to rally around Huckabee throughout the remaining primaries. If that fails, I’ll have to take a long hard look at Hillary Clinton. My dad will freak when he reads that!

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