Home State Advantage?
6 February 2008One result of Super Tuesday bears paying attention to and a little compare and contrast is in order. While John McCain won his home state of Arizona, he failed to achieve a majority there. Indeed, McCain only received 48% of the vote of Arizona Republicans. That means that 52% of Arizona Republicans felt McCain was not the best choice. In contrast Mike Huckabee not only won Arkansas, he did so with a 60% majority.
I see serious ramifications to this outcome. Voters in any candidate’s home state make their decision from a unique perspective. While the rest of us can look at a candidate’s record, we do not have the perspective of actually living under that candidate’s leadership. Voters in Arizona know John McCain better than the rest of us do. Voters in Arkansas know Mike Huckabee better than the rest of us.
John McCain has been Arizona’s Senator for two decades. I’d say they have a little better perspective than anyone outside Arizona. While it’s true that McCain continues to be reelected, there are lots of factors involved that people in other states will be unaware of. And of course, there’s McCain’s incumbent protection legislation, otherwise known as campaign finance reform. That legislation made it much more difficult for a candidate to challenge an incumbent, thereby serving to protect McCain’s Senate seat. Additionally, McCain has enjoyed the unqualified support of the NRSC which also serves to protect incumbents. The NRSC has a long history of supporting incumbents over true conservative challengers.
Mike Huckabee, on the other hand, had no such protection in Arkansas. He was reelected twice after serving out the remainder of the former governor’s term. There were no protection policies in place like campaign finance reform or the NRSC. And after ten and a half years as Governor of Arkansas, Republican voters in that state voted overwhelmingly to endorse Huckabee for President. It appears that Republicans in Arkansas think rather highly of Governor Huckabee after living with his administration for more than a decade.
Clearly the voters of Arkansas are much happier with Huckabee than the voters of Arizona are with McCain. That, to me, is telling. I think it would behoove us all to give some credence to the voters in those two state. After all, they really do have a perspective the rest of us don’t have.
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