Romney Finally Wins One
15 January 2008As soon as the polls closed in Michigan FOX News declared Romney the winner in the Republican primary. As the votes continue to be counted Romney’s lead continues to increase. When FOX News called it the lead was six points. As I write this that lead has expanded to nine percent over McCain. The question now is, what impact will this have in South Carolina come Saturday?
Here’s how I see it. McCain was counting on winning in Michigan, or at least running a close second. As it stands now it looks like he’ll be a distant second. That hurts him in South Carolina. The McCain campaign spin is that the large contingent of veterans in South Carolina is well organized and they will carry the day. I don’t think so. I think McCain comes in second or third on Saturday. Those veterans may have done it for him had he won in Michigan but that didn’t happen.
Thompson has really been working hard here the last week and it is clearly paying off. But he came in behind Ron Paul in Michigan which could hurt him as some see him as a lost cause. That can only help Huckabee who hasn’t been sitting on his laurels either. I think Huckabee wins in South Carolina. Thompson comes in second or third. If McCain can hold on to some of the numbers he’s built and comes in second with Thompson third that could spell the end of Thompson’s run. Even Newt Gingrich thinks Huckabee is the man to beat here and he doesn’t see it happening either.
I’ve said before that from an ideological perspective I like Thompson over Huckabee. I wish Thompson had executive experience though. For the most part the voters prefer former Governors over former or current Senators. Unquestionably Huckabee has the executive experience and Thompson doesn’t. But otherwise I really like Thompson’s positions pretty much across the board. The problem is, I don’t think he can win. His abysmal showing in Michigan strengthens that view. Huckabee, on the other hand, has shown his ability to build support and gain momentum in spite of a lack of funding. Now he’s raising money at a much faster rate with the added momentum. Thompson seems to be on fire now but I still think it’s just too late.
The latest Rasmussen poll has McCain with a strong lead in South Carolina, nine points over Huckabee but Real Clear Politics still has gives Huckabee +3.7. While I generally like the Rasmussen poll I have strong doubts about this one. I live here and talk to people. I think I know a little about what’s going on here. McCain may have a small lead going into today but if it’s actually a lead it will shrink following his distant second place finish in Michigan. Besides, people in the south aren’t fans of McCain. I think the Rasmussen poll is way off and I think Saturday will demonstrate that.
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Tags: Elections, Fred Thompson, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Political Ads, Politicians, Politics, Primaries, RepublicansRelated Posts
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January 16th, 2008 at 11:16 am
[...] Ron’s Musings: Romney Finally Wins One [...]