More Good News
24 October 2006
Dick Morris and Eileen McGann have an article at conservative.org today that should brighten the day for Republicans. In an article entitled Encouraging News for Conservatives, Morris and McGann point out a number of polls that show Republicans gaining steam in numerous races. While they fall short of predicting the Republicans will retain control of both houses of Congress, they make the point that the goal is within reach.
Here are the polls they cite:
- Pollsters Scott Rasmussen and John Zogby both show Republican Bob Corker gaining on Democratic Rep. Harold Ford Jr. in Tennessee, a must-win Senate seat for the Democrats. Zogby has Corker ahead by seven, while Rasmussen still shows a Ford edge of two points.
- Zogby reports a “turnaround” in New Jersey’s Senate race with the GOP candidate Tom Kean taking the lead, a conclusion shared by some other public polls.
- Even though Sen. Jim Talent in Missouri is still under the magic 50 percent threshold for an incumbent, Rasmussen has him one point ahead and Zogby puts him three up. But unless he crests 50 percent, he’ll probably still lose.
- Even though he is a lost cause, both Rasmussen and Zogby show Montana’s Republican Sen. Conrad Burns cutting the gap and moving up.
- In Virginia, Republican embattled incumbent Sen. George Allen has now moved over the 50 percent threshold in his internal polls. (He’d been at 48 percent.)
I noted last week that I didn’t believe the polls at that time and it seems, as normally happens, the polls become more accurate as the election draws closer. Another factor seems to be Republican voters “coming home” as the talking heads have been saying all day. Still, pundits are careful to avoid any predictions that Republicans will ultimately prevail. It is interesting, however, to note the rise in comments about the potential angst among Democrats should they ultimately remain in the minority in both houses.
Other factors Morris and McGann speculate may be in play are ”
Bush’s success in dealing with North Korea and his willingness to reassess tactics in Iraq could also play a part in the slight shift now underway.” If the Democrats ultimately stay in the minority they say Howard Dean will be ultimately to blame. They note that the “Democratic National Committee is broke and borrowing, while the GOP can afford to fund fully its key races.”
I predicted last week that Republicans will hang on and I stand by the prediction today. We will lose some seats in both houses but will retain the majority and Democrats will find a way to call that a win for them while privately licking their wounds and figuring out what went wrong.
I’ll also predict that, if Democrats do remain the minority party in both houses, Howard Dean will be replaced as DNC Chair and Nancy Pelosi’s rein as minority leader in the house will be over. Perhaps the Democrats will even figure out that extreme rhetoric and no ideas equals a loss but don’t hold your breath on that.
Tags: Elections, Politics
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