Election Outlook
20 September 2006
With seven weeks to go until election day the outlook is changing. A month ago the general wisdom was that Democrats were poised to retake the House and maybe even pull off a coup in the Senate. What a difference a month makes!
So what events have worked to change the dynamics of the election outlook? First let me say that Republicans are not out of the woods but their prospect for holding both houses has improved dramatically.
First, President Bush has finally starting doing what I was calling for him to do several weeks ago in my post A Critical Lack of Decisive Leadership. In that post I pointed out that Bush needed to “cast the vision” for the so called War on Terror. Bush has been doing that consistently for a couple of weeks now and it is making a difference. The polls show that the American people are moving more to his side on Iraq and the overall war. The public is not completely persuade mind you, but they are moving and Bush needs to keep it up.
Next, the price of gas has been falling for a couple of weeks and it appears that the priced will continue down for a little while yet. That is good news for Bush and the Republicans and bad news for Democrats who have been quite successful for some time now at convincing the American public that the economy is bad when in fact it is not. Unemployment is below 5%, wages are up, the economy is strong but the Dems have talked it down for so long that the public was buying it even though it wasn’t true. That’s a harder lie to sell with gas prices falling, that being the main economic issue affecting most people.
Third is the Democrat obstruction to Bush’s proposed legislation spelling our what the CIA can and cannot do to high value prisoners to gain information. The public has been solidly behind Bush on this issue and the Dems have hurt themselves by opposing it. They falsely believed that McCain, Graham, et.al. would provide them political cover but it isn’t working out quite like they hoped. Instead the issue is hurting McCain, Graham, et. al. That’s a win in the R column.
Additionally, the Dems and the talking heads have ignored vulnerable Democrat seats in the House and Senate while emphasizing vulnerable Republicans. The fact is, Dems need to pick up a net 15 seats to take control of the House and a net six in the Senate. The Senate was always a long shot and all Democrat plans include picking up Rhode Island which is less likely since Chafee beat back challenger Laffey.
To be sure, seven weeks is a long time in election politics. Still, things are looking up for Republicans and there is every indication that the outlook will continue to improve.
Next week we’ll begin to look at individual competitive races and attempt to size up the competition, the issues in those races and the likely outcomes. Stay tuned!
Sphere: Related ContentTags: Economics, Elections, Politics
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September 21st, 2006 at 6:27 am
I’m keeping my fingers crossed. It would be worth a lot of laughter if the Republicans actually made gains this election! The MSM would certainly have their pink panties in a bunch if that happened!
September 21st, 2006 at 9:15 am
Isn’t that the truth! It’s a close call at this point but the Dems are doing everything they can at this point to hurt themselves. Of course, as my buddy Chuck Muth says, “the Republicans never blow a chance to blow it.” I’m not sure I fully agree with him but they are prone to shooting themselves in the foot at time.
September 21st, 2006 at 11:53 am
Republicans also “rule” as though they are the minority party, seeking the approval of the Democrats rather than leading according to party principles and campaign promises.
September 21st, 2006 at 6:23 pm
It has seemed that, after 12 years of Republican dominance in the House, they still can’t act like they are in charge. They seem to be too worried about what people will think if they fight back. When they do fight back it is generally effective but most of the time they’re afraid to try because the dems might say bad things about them. Like they don’t already.